There are reports of systematic grain thefts in areas conquered by Russia in Ukraine. As the war continues, famine is feared to grow not only in Ukraine but also in countries that are dependent on grain production in Ukraine.
Russian soldiers arrive at the farm of a Ukrainian farmer and offer to buy all the grain at a mock price. If the farmer does not agree to this, the grain is forcibly taken and even the silos are blown up.
Among other things, such thefts of grain have recently been reported by several parties in Ukraine.
As early as the end of April, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry and the Minister of Agriculture accused Russian troops of stealing grain and agricultural machinery from the territories in their possession. Reports of Russian attacks on Ukrainian grain plants have also increased.
A specialist researcher at the Natural Resources Center Luke has also heard of the thefts Csaba Jansik.
– I have talked about this with my Ukrainian colleague who works at the University of Warsaw. He said the action was systematic. The grain is emptied from the silos and loaded onto trains, for example. According to his information, after loading, the silos have been bombed to the ground.
A new war crimes indictment?
However, no one can know the exact amount because the situation is alive every day.
International law prohibits the looting and deprivation of food by civilians in war-torn places.
“If the war had broken out in September, the situation would have been quite different.”
Ukraine is a major grain country. It is the fifth largest exporter of wheat and the third largest exporter of corn in the world. If grain is not obtained from Ukraine, it will affect food production worldwide.
The Middle East, North Africa and parts of Asia, among others, are dependent on grain.
Agricultural expert rate CNN case (switch to another service)that in some countries in the Middle East may not be interested in the origin of wheat. Countries may therefore buy stolen wheat from Russia from Russia.
The stolen grain is last summer’s harvest. According to Csaba Janski, it is significant that the grain was normally delivered to the world until February. So the whole harvest of last year is not going to be devastated.
– If the war had broken out in September, the situation would have been quite different.
The most critical thing right now is what kind of crop will be available next summer.
The price of bread can rise by tens of percent
There are six major grain-producing areas in the world, and the Black Sea is one of the most important. The Black Sea region produces 108 million tonnes of wheat, compared with 137 million tonnes in China, for example.
Jansik estimates that other exporting countries, such as the EU, still have enough grain in stock that the gap left by Ukraine can be filled for some time.
The gaze is now on next summer’s harvest. It has a significant impact on how the situation turns. If one of the remaining five production areas becomes a losing year, the world’s food security could face a really difficult situation. If the harvest is better than normal, it can mitigate the consequences of the war.
However, a clear rise in grain prices is expected. For example, according to Jansik, bread can rise in price by tens of percent in certain countries. In the Middle East, for example, bread plays a major role in the nutrition of the population, and the rise in prices in the already poor countries is the biggest hit.
The UN World Food Program has already warned that war could exacerbate global famine. Ukrainian authorities have also claimed that Russia is trying to cause famine in Ukraine.
The effects of the war will be felt in Ukraine’s grain production and exports for a long time to come.
If, hypothetically, the war were to end now, it could take months, even years, for Ukraine to return to its original level of grain exports, says Csaba Jansik, a specialist at Luke. Some farmland and agricultural machinery have been destroyed and ports have been bombed.
– The northern part of the Black Sea has had the best production areas in Ukraine. It does not now appear that they could be used for cultivation quickly.