History teaches us that in times of war, a quick victory needs no solid justification. A country commits, wins, and subsequently justifies its action with an argument. Conversely, a government must explain any protracted war to its population, in order to benefit from the support of its public opinion and that of the rest of the world. Otherwise, he exposes himself to a backlash.
This law of history has applied to Russia since the beginning of its failed invasion. Moscow expected a rapid collapse of Ukrainian resistance… which did not happen. From the outset, the rationale for the invasion was ridiculous, but no one paid much attention to it or took it seriously: Ukraine was corrupt and plagued by the Nazis.
For Russia to take offense at corruption (and invade a country for that reason) is laughable. Russia is home to oligarchs who appropriated state-owned enterprises being privatized after the collapse of communism. Former communist politicians benefited greatly from this process. At the helm in Saint Petersburg, Vladimir Putin himself gained and reinforced his power thanks to the debts contracted by the oligarchs towards him and because he knew the secrets of the Mafiosos, even knowing where the corpses of some were. and others during the settling of accounts then in progress in the former Leningrad.
“Once started, misinformation is hard to stop”
The accusation of Nazism is even stranger. Although there are certainly elements of Nazism in Ukraine – as in many other countries – no one is goose-stepping in the streets of kyiv. There are no more concentration camps in Ukraine and nothing bears the mark of a Nazi tradition in current political life. Moreover, when the Nazis were in power in Germany, few parts of the world suffered as much as Ukraine – a country that was also persecuted under the Soviet Union.
George Friedman
AG
Moscow has accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is Jewish, of being a Nazi! If the Nazis were as powerful as the Kremlin claims, they would certainly have prevented a Jew from taking power. I am also convinced that the inventor of this idea within the Russian propaganda system did not know that Zelensky was Jewish.
But the problem with any misinformation campaign is that once started, it’s hard to stop. She lives her own life. This is especially true when the misinforming country is losing the war. It is then a question of finding a means of explaining to the public that war is a necessary evil. The argument of the Russian propagandists is therefore well found, because ending corruption and eliminating Nazism are noble objectives that everyone can support.
Moscow knows very well that all this is an invention. But he still had to confirm, reinforce and expand the initial accusation. So how to explain the absurdity that there are Jewish Nazis? The solution found by Moscow: to suggest, as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov did, that Hitler was Jewish. As we know, this old and false assertion does not hold water. But here’s the reasoning: if Hitler was Jewish, then so is the Nazism he created; therefore the Jews are responsible for their own genocide… and National Socialism has little to reproach itself for. If one pushes this absurd logic to the limit, it means that Ukraine must be saved from the Jews and the Nazis.
Putin apologized to the Israeli prime minister after Lavrov’s remarks. These apologies were welcome but do not change the fact that Russia invaded Ukraine based on the idea that its Jewish president was… a Nazi! In the field of war propaganda, this construction is almost a work of art… Once you accept the idea that Ukraine is full of Nazis, the rest follows, with elegance and fluidity. Let us summarize: according to this reasoning, the Jews, led by a Jew (Hitler) would therefore have collectively committed suicide.
“The apparatchiks understood that communism required total flexibility”
There is, however, a rational explanation for all this delirium: Russian agit-prop, like Soviet agit-prop before it, is designed not only to motivate the Russians and divide the enemy, but also to mask the fact that there is no moral justification for what their governments are doing. Thus, Stalin first created a worldwide anti-Nazi movement; then he turned around and signed a treaty with Hitler in August 1939. Then he went to war against Germany when Berlin broke the German-Soviet pact in June 1941.
The party apparatchiks then understood that communism demanded of them total flexibility and unlimited amorality. But among the population were what Lenin called “useful idiots”: people who actually believed these complicated lies. These people represented an inestimable value because if the active communists were not credible, the sympathizers who were unaware of reality, could be! Hence the crucial role of all those in Russian public opinion who sincerely believe in “made in Kremlin” disinformation. Especially since, let’s remember, the war in Ukraine is not particularly popular in Russia and that, on the ground, the Ukrainians are resisting.
* Born in Budapest in 1949, George Friedmanis the founder of Geopolitical Futures, geopolitical analysis and forecasting site. An American expert in the field of foreign affairs and intelligence, he has advised numerous governmental and military organizations in the United States and abroad. In 2015, George Friedman created Geopolitical Futures. Previously, in 1996, he founded Stratfor, an influential digital media also devoted to international affairs. Finally, George Friedman is the author of numerous books including the best-selling The Next 100 Years,published in 2009 and praised for the accuracy of its predictions.