(Finance) – More than 70 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Moscow they arrive signals that are anything but reassuring. With the stop to the supply of gas a Poland and Bulgaria, there Russia has raised the bar even more by shifting the focus, that is, passing from words to deeds: what kind of message does Putin want to send to Europe and the world?Finance asked the ambassador of Switzerland Thomas Greminger Head of the Geneva Center for Security Policy (GCSP) from 1 May 2021. Former director of the Human Security Division (now the Peace and Human Rights Division) of FDFA and former Secretary General of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Vienna, Greminger he has devoted a large part of his life to the study and promotion of world peace policies.
“This is an aspect that is part of the ongoing economic conflict between Russia and the West, as a direct consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. One of the main instruments of influence exercised by Moscow on the EU is precisely the control of energy supply. Never as in this moment is it as evident as many European countries are heavily dependent on Russian gas and, by interrupting its supply to some markets, Moscow is sending the signal that it will not stand by but is ready to respond to European sanctions and could do the same with respect to other European markets. The message, in short, is that Russia has its means for harm the West in response to Western sanctions imposed on Moscow “.
Never as this time, the war travels a strictly economic track: what does it mean for the European economy, already “stressed” by the Covid test?
“One of the most visible consequences for consumers – explains Greminger – It will be a increase (due to the reduction in supply) of the price of energy. EU members are currently negotiating a possible collective embargo on Russian energy, which, if agreed, would of course further limit supply and raise energy prices, at least until these countries find alternative suppliers. The likely impact of this on the Russian economy, which depends heavily on revenue from energy exports, would be even more severe. There are other serious economic impacts of the war in Ukraine, among them the interruption of the supply of wheat and other basic necessities, intended for jeopardize food security and prices in Europe and, in particular, developing countries will be particularly affected; and the reallocation by some governments of budget funds to support Ukraine in other ways, including through arms supplies and assistance to the millions of refugees who fled Russia’s attack on Ukraine. The economic aspect is not the only means used, others include the military, IT and IT domains. President Putin knows that Europeans will not be able to replace Russian gas overnight. This would incredibly damage the economies of some European countries, especially Germany. So use the gas as a lever. “
At the moment, at least officially, everything is silent on the negotiating front: is a peace agreement still possible?
“An agreement should eventually be possible, but it may not come quickly. It will depend on the willingness of the parties to find a workable compromise. The parties do not yet perceive the situation as a mutually damaged standoff (Zartman). Putin should decide that an outcome negotiation is the best alternative to pursue its ambitions through aggression. At the moment the parties are distant from each other – particularly on issues relating to the territorial integrity of Ukraine – but there are signs of possible convergence on other aspects. including some humanitarian needs (although much more needs to be done on this) and potentially on neutrality. At present, Moscow’s publicly declared territorial claims against Ukraine would violate accepted principles of international law, and it is difficult to imagine that Kiev you agree to compromise on such requests, nor that the international community respects a result that sees Russia controlling parts of Ukraine by proxy, annexation or other means. “
As happened during the pandemic, Europe’s response came “loud and clear”. In your opinion, are the sanctions proving effective or are they in danger of becoming a dangerous boomerang?
“Beyond the punitive aspect, the desired outcome of the sanctions is a change in behavior by the Russian government, through the economic pressure that is exerting itself on Moscow – and this we have yet to see. We are still in the initial phase of the war. and other sanctions are under consideration. It will take time to properly assess whether sanctions “work” or not. They are certainly having a serious impact son the Russian economy, and there is a strong likelihood that there will also be significant long-term effects, including a notable detachment of the Russian economy from the West and the consequent need for Western countries to find alternative energy supplies. At the moment, the effect on Russian industries is certainly evident that they can no longer have access to spare parts (aircraft like Airbus) and therefore this undermines the Russian economy “.