USA, labor market report confirms FED orientation

US inflation peak could be near less hawkish FED

(Finance) – Data on the US labor marketwhich were stronger than expected today, increased i Investor fears of greater interest rate hikes by the Fed. The US central bank hiked interest rates by 50 basis points this week, the largest increase since 2000, and President Powell said hikes of this size are also slated for upcoming meetings. In the post-meeting press conference, Powell also stated that the central bank hopes to moderate the demand for workers, with the aim of slow wage growth and inflation “without slowing the economyhave a recession and cause unemployment to rise materially. ”A strong labor market could therefore push the Fed to act without undue fear of a recession.

The data released today

In April they were added 428,000 jobs in the non-agricultural sectors (non-farm payrolls), after 424,000 payrolls were created in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data on employment, more observed than the unemployment rate, was better than the market’s expectations, which indicated an increase of 391,000 jobs.

An interesting fact, however, is that the labor force participation rate – the share of the population working or looking for work – fell to 62.2%, the lowest in three months, and the rate for workers aged 25 to 54 fell. The number, volatile on a monthly basis, could suggest retirements or people leaving without taking another job or looking for work.

Biden’s comment

“When I took office, there were about 20 million people who relied on unemployment benefits to feed their families; today, that number is about 1 million, the lowest since 1970, “starved the president of the United States Joe Bidencommenting on the data released today.

“There is no doubt that inflation and high prices are a challenge for families across the country and fighting inflation is a top priority for me,” he added. continued strength of our labor market and the savings that families have accumulated in the last year they mean that our economy must face the challenges of Covid-19, Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and global inflation from a position of strength “.

Analyst comments

“IS This report is unlikely to change anything for Fed officialsno further acceleration in wage growth will be welcomed, while they will be a little disappointed at the absence of further participation increases this month – commented Allison Boxer, US Economist at PIMCO – With few notable surprises in the report on ’employment, officials will now turn their attention to next week’s inflation data. “

“The data confirms the Fed’s opinion that the labor market remains resilient and has strong positive momentum – said Rubeela Farooqi, US chief economist of High Frequency Economics – However, wage pressures are at the center of attention and high earnings indicate ongoing competition for still scarce labor, which is increasing labor costs “.

“No big surprise from today’s employment report: it amply confirms that the labor market remains rigid, giving the Fed the flexibility to face its mandate head-on of price stability, “said Jason Pride, Chief Investment Officer of Private Wealth at Glenmede – Wage growth has been slower and below expectations, but one month does not set a consistent enough trend for the Fed to slow its intentions of monetary tightening “.

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