In the international media, Kaja Kallas seems omnipresent. When the Estonian Prime Minister is not answering questions from the American channel CNN, she writes a column in the British weekly The Economist or in the New York Times. In Berlin, at the end of April, the 44-year-old ex-lawyer made an impression in a speech. “Gas may be expensive, but freedom is priceless,” she told the Germans, still cautious about the idea of an embargo on Russian hydrocarbons.
With her perfect English and her sense of communication, Kaja Kallas perfectly embodies this new generation of leaders from the former Eastern Europe, now determined to influence European affairs. In the Baltic countries, but also in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Croatia, Bulgaria and soon in Slovenia, where the illiberal Janez Jansa has just lost the elections, pro-Europeans are in charge. And, on a completely different line, the Hungarian Viktor Orban and the Pole Mateusz Morawiecki no longer have to demonstrate their ability to influence, or block, the compromises worked out at 27 in Brussels.
From Chirac’s remonstrances to the West’s blindness to Putin
The war in Ukraine has suddenly thrust the nations of the former Soviet bloc into the spotlight. Because they are on the front line – small Estonia shares nearly 300 kilometers of borders with Russia -, but also because they were right before anyone else about Vladimir Putin and his thirst for conflict. Paris, Berlin or Rome can bite their fingers for not having listened to them. Like a reversal of 2003, when the “new Europe” had chosen to support the Americans in their war against Iraq, to the great displeasure of Jacques Chirac. The French president had scolded the countries of eastern Europe, believing that they had “missed an opportunity to be silent”. The sentence was again reminded to Emmanuel Macron at the start of his first five-year term…
Today, the “new” Member States of the European Union are no longer so new. Eight of them (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary and Slovenia) have belonged to the club for more than eighteen years. Bulgaria and Romania arrived three years later, in 2007. All of them fully occupy their political space in the European institutions, even if they do not currently lead any of them. “I didn’t feel any difference, my candidacy was immediately taken very seriously,” recalls former Romanian Prime Minister Dacian Ciolos, one of the few to have recently chaired a group in the European Parliament, that of the centrists of Renew.
Moreover, the representatives of these countries do not appreciate being generally qualified as “Eastern Europeans”. Romania’s interests are not those of Estonia, any more than those of France are those of the Netherlands. “We are corrected”, blows a French source in Brussels.
Infographics
Dario Ingiusto / L’Express
The pandemic and then the war have accelerated the rebalancing, even if the center of gravity of the EU remains for the moment firmly anchored in the west, along the Franco-German axis. “We must not confuse the geographical center of gravity and the political center of gravity, linked to economic power”, underlines a diplomat. In fact, GDPs in the East have not yet caught up with those in the West. Then, Poland, in the hands of the nationalists of the Law and Justice party, does not play its role of locomotive.
Finally, the countries of central and eastern Europe rarely make proposals that could serve as a basis for a European compromise. They are content to defend their interests, even if Kaja Kallas has recently made remarkable suggestions to forge a consensus around an embargo on Russian gas and oil. “There is more balance, more listening to the representatives of these countries, but also the concern not to take too hasty decisions which would shift the center of gravity to the east without us taking the measure “, sums up a regular behind the scenes in Brussels.
Towards a Europe of 36?
In reality, Europe’s shift to the east is probably only a matter of time. The European Union in 2050 could have a completely different face… The question of its enlargement is now being posed with renewed acuity. “This is the major European project for the coming months”, asks a French source. Ukraine submitted its candidacy, four days after the start of the Russian offensive. On April 8 in kyiv, the President of the European Commission assured that the battered country belonged to “the European family”. Ursula von der Leyen gave President Volodymyr Zelensky two questionnaires, the first step in examining the membership file.
Three days later, the European Commissioner for Enlargement more discreetly handed over the same documents to Moldova and Georgia. Even if the war and its consequences remain urgent, Europeans know that they will have to grasp the subject. The Commission could issue an opinion on Ukraine as early as June. However, the six Balkan countries that have been waiting in the antechamber for years do not intend to stay on the side of the road either. To counter the Russian influence, it will also be necessary to provide them with answers.
An EU of 36 therefore becomes possible. However, with the current institutions, it would be ungovernable: decisions are already slow and cumbersome at 27. We must therefore invent something else. In The Express, former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta pleads for a confederation including a second circle of countries. Macronist MEP Bernard Guetta is also campaigning for a “multi-speed Europe” in a recent column in the World.
For France, the enlargement of the EU would be an upheaval
The neighbors of the suitors show themselves to be in favor of a real membership in the club. “But between the start of the accession process and entry there is a distance to cover that must be reconsidered. They must be offered a transitional alternative, the possibility of integrating the EU gradually, policy by policy”, believes the Romanian Dacian Ciolos, who is working on the subject. Will it be necessary to modify the European treaties to adapt the decision-making processes? All these questions are already animating discussions behind the scenes.
“The destiny of Europe will be changed by the war. We will have to collectively rethink the methods of European construction”, recognized an adviser to the Elysée at the end of February. “This is a subject that we cannot evacuate, but on which the potential for European division is extremely strong”, worries for his part a connoisseur of the file.
Emmanuel Macron is due to deliver a major speech in Strasbourg on May 9, on the occasion of the restitution of the work of the conference on the future of Europe. In Brussels, some hope that he will outline some avenues. For a country like France, enlargement would represent a huge upheaval, even if it does not happen for ten or fifteen years. “What about the common agricultural policy, for example, if a country of more than 40 million inhabitants like Ukraine joins the Union one day?, is already thinking aloud a European source. What about the relationship with Germany, more east-oriented? At a time when the bombs are falling on Ukraine, this horizon may still seem distant. But the prospect is inevitable.
On Monday May 9, EuropaNova, L’Express and France info are organizing an exceptional “Europe 2050” conference at the Maison de la Radio et de la Musique. Program, registration and info here: https://bit.ly/384MEPZ