If Finland joins NATO, it will have a human rights ally in Turkey that will fight on many fronts.
The war in Ukraine came at an opportune time for Turkey and the country’s sole leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğanille.
Prior to the attack, Turkey’s relations with both the European Union and the United States were in crisis.
Due to an anti-aircraft missile trade with Russia, the United States excluded Turkey from the F-35 fighter program and the country’s latest attempts to procure other replacement military aircraft from the United States were stalled.
The only major co-operation project that seemed to be of interest to the EU was to stop the influx of refugees. However, Turkey has repeatedly threatened to allow migrants and refugees to enter the EU across borders.
The war in Ukraine made Turkey an important gambler
February 24 changed the situation – at least temporarily, as Turkey again became an important player between East and West.
– The war in Ukraine allowed Turkey to break out of its isolated position, says the researcher Aslı Aydıntaşbaş in a telephone interview from Istanbul.
Aydıntaşbaş follows Turkey to the European ECFR incubator.
Turkey has traditionally balanced between Russia and the West, supplying Ukraine with proven Bayraktar drones, among other things. But it has not joined the sanctions front against Russia.
On the other hand, it has said it has closed the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles from Russian (and other) warships.
– The war in Ukraine has given President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan the opportunity to do what he knows quite well, namely the balances between the parties, Aydıntaşbaş says.
At the moment, both Russia and NATO seem to accept Turkey’s line. From Turkey’s point of view, the war in Ukraine seems to bring many kinds of dividends.
Human rights activists in sight
Turkey’s strengthening position is bad news for human rights defenders who had previously called for more resolute action by the West against human rights violations in Turkey.
There are now indications that a more confident government can act in peace from harsher criticism.
At the end of April, a businessman and civic activist Osman Kavala was sentenced to life imprisonment without the possibility of pardon. Seven other NGO activists were sentenced to 18 years in prison.
The confused indictment called on those accused of trying to overthrow the government in connection with the 2013 Gezi protests.
Demonstrations against opposition to a shopping center planned for Gezi Park in Istanbul also waved Erdoğan’s chair, who was then prime minister.
The map of the bees ended up as proof
The more than 600-page indictment is like a scrapbook full of anecdotes and details collected here and there that aren’t really related to anything.
Among the original evidence is, among other things, a map of the occurrence of different bee species in the Middle East. It is said to be a plan to divide Turkey. As the charges fell, new ones were invented.
It has been speculated that the convictions of Kavala and his partners are revenge on Erdoğan.
– This is a personal matter. Erdoğan truly believes that Kavala sought to oust him. There is very little evidence of this in itself, says Aslı Aydıntaşbaş.
The Turkish judicial system has deteriorated badly in recent years and the president has become directly entangled in legal proceedings by announcing what he expects from the courts.
– No one is surprised to find that Turkey does not have an independent judiciary. Citizens know that the judiciary is dependent on the government for its decisions.
Turkey’s review fell silent
As long as the war in Ukraine continues, President Erdoğan apparently assumes that Europe and the United States have no enthusiasm to address human rights abuses. Aydıntaşbaş says that reactions to the convictions of Kavala and other activists have been moderate, both in Europe and in the United States.
– The government has more freedom to discipline its critics. The Gezi trial is a sign of where we are heading, meaning that critics are less tolerated and pressure is increasing
The election year is also a year of fear
Turkey will hold parliamentary and presidential elections next year, with fearful expectations from the opposition. In one way or another, the winner of the election will be Erdoğan, whose candidacy is considered certain. In the disbanded parliament, the majority is likely to belong to Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party.
For Erdoğan and his party, the outlook is poor in itself and support is declining.
The Turkish economy is in trouble and inflation is estimated to be rising at an annual rate of over 100%. Officially, inflation has risen to over 60 percent.
Election victory can be achieved by rejecting opposition candidates in advance or by massive electoral fraud. Already, Kurdish opposition politicians in particular have been imprisoned.
Against Kurdish guerrillas in Iraq and Syria
The West is now giving Turkey freer hands in its neighborhood.
While Turkish drones sold to Ukraine have made a bad impression against Russian troops, Turkey’s own fighter jets have been heavily used in both northern Iraq and northeastern Syria.
The PKK, which has been at war in Turkey for a long time, has been trying for years to seek protection in the mountains of northern Iraq. Turkey has slammed guerrilla camps and appears to be preparing a buffer zone for northern Iraq, which already has Turkish troops.
Turkey is also controlling parts of northern Syria, where it claims to be at war with Kurdish guerrillas who have been declared terrorists by the PKK.
It is embarrassing for the West that the same Kurdish guerrillas have been valuable allies in the fight against the extremist Isis
– Turkey has gained more room for maneuver in both Syria and Iraq. Internationally, there is not much desire to criticize Turkey, even though it is conducting large-scale military operations in Iraq and Syria, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş says.
Finland would have a problematic ally
From Finland’s point of view, the NATO country Turkey will become even more interesting if we join the Defense Alliance.
Turkey is conducting its controversial operations in Iraq, Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East on its own, without direct support from NATO.
Admittedly, perhaps Turkey’s strategic weight would solve the game, as it did in the 1950s when the country joined NATO. This position also protected Turkey when the country’s fragile democracy was put on hold by repeated military coups.