the price of food is already starting to be so high that it can lead to unrest, says the professor

In early 2011, a demonstration took place on the streets of Cairo. The Egyptians had had enough of an authoritarian president, corruption and unemployment, but also the high price of bread. There was an Arab Spring, a wave of uprisings affecting the countries of North Africa and the Middle East.

Now the events of the Arab Spring are once again in the spotlight. One factor behind this was high food prices. There are fears that the ongoing sharp rise in food prices will once again fuel violent protests and deepen conflicts, especially in emerging economies.

Can there be a new Arab Spring ahead?

There is indeed a connection between high food prices and unrest, the professor says Patricia Justino. He works as a senior researcher at UNU-WIDER, a research institute for development economics at the United Nations University in Helsinki.

– According to studies, rising food prices can lead to increased tensions and unrest, but they take place through many different channels and can also be a slow process.

So Justino is not directly drawing parallels to the fact that the ongoing price crisis means a spring and a summer of unrest. However, he says food prices are currently at a level that could contribute to unrest.

– Rebellion is likely.

There are already protests over rising food prices in a few countries around the world. In Sri Lanka, for example, in the midst of the economic crisis, protesters have demanded the resignation of the president due to the weak economic situation, ongoing power outages and rising food and other living costs.

Food prices were high worldwide even before the Russian invasion war.

Prices are now at the highest level in its entire measurement history, according to an index maintained by the United Nations Agricultural Organization (FAO). The price index has been measured since 1990.

The war has particularly shaken the grain market. Russia and Ukraine are important production areas, accounting for more than a quarter of world wheat exports.

Due to the war, a big pot of agricultural products will not be able to enter the world market, says a specialist researcher at the Natural Resources Center Csaba Jansik. He finds the situation worrying.

In Ukraine, by this time should be done sowing of spring plants. It does not seem to be successful, at least in the eastern and southern parts of the country, and therefore the future harvest is unlikely to produce as much as before.

– The question is how quickly Ukraine and Russia will be involved in foreign trade again. There is no quick fix, which makes the situation worrying.

The turmoil in the food market caused by the war is particularly severe for countries that are dependent on food imports and have previously imported wheat from Ukraine and Russia, for example. These countries include Egypt, Turkey, Sudan and Nigeria, for example.

– When the price of imported grain rises to levels not seen before, the role of the state becomes difficult. In several countries, the state has made sure that bread remains affordable, says Csaba Jansik.

In Egypt, the state subsidizes the purchase of bread so that the price of ordinary bread remains artificially low. Egypt has made at least one increase in the price of subsidized bread this spring.

The increases are painful, as bread has been seen in Egypt as part of a kind of social contract between the state and its citizens. Its core idea is this: bread is considered cheap to keep citizens happy.

This is why Egypt, which imports a great deal of wheat, is now being monitored.

According to Professor Patricia Justino, on the other hand, price increases are risky, especially in countries where there are already tensions between the government and the people.

These include Ethiopia, which is in a civil war, Sri Lanka, which is going through an economic crisis, and the politically unstable Sudan, according to Justino. Food prices have already risen in all these countries. News agency According to Reuters (you’re switching to another service) bread in Sudan, for example, cost 2 Sudanese pounds two years ago, while today the price is around £ 50.

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High food prices punish the lives of poor people in particular, but expensive bread can also shake entire societies. How could the chain reaction caused by the Russian invasion war be avoided?

Both Justino and Jansik stress that what matters is how states react and what opportunities they have to soften the blow to citizens caused by rising prices.

– Studies show that social security programs can prevent at least violent unrest, Justino says.

According to Jansik, one of the core problems of the entire current global food system is that food production and demand have been too closely aligned for years.

So the food has been produced for the world market just as much as it is sourced from the market for food. The balance is delicate and that is why such shocks have such severe consequences, he says.

– In practice, we no longer have trade with those countries that have traditionally bought products on the world market. In recent years, there has also been a decline in stocks, especially for wheat and soya. What is even more worrying is that today the stocks are in countries that only want to use them themselves, such as China.

According to Jansik, the question of fate is what kind of crop will eventually be obtained in other major production areas. What will be the weather conditions in the key cereal fields of North America and Europe, for example? If the harvest remains weak elsewhere this year, the price crisis and the availability of food will only get worse.

– That is why it is hoped that the harvest will be particularly successful in Finland as well, Jansik says.

You can discuss the topic on 28.4. until 11 p.m.