Will the France of 2027 look like a “great ecological nation”, as Emmanuel Macron wishes? The somewhat vague formula pronounced by the newly re-elected president, on the evening of the second round of the presidential election, leaves room for multiple interpretations. Increase in the share of renewable energies, end of fossil fuel subsidies, strengthening of the energy efficiency of buildings, and protection of biodiversity… The ecological nation requires an upheaval in all strata of public action. However, environmental associations and climate specialists are alarmed because Emmanuel Macron’s program seems to fly over essential parts of this transition.
“If we stick to a simple definition, a great ecological nation is above all one that respects its commitments in terms of ecology and the reduction of its emissions”, warns Jean-Baptiste Lebrun from the outset, the director of the CLER Réseau association for energy transition. The prerequisite is significant for Emmanuel Macron, because the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is one of the major challenges of the new five-year term.
According to the High Council for the Climate, France is not in a position to meet its ambition of reducing its CO2 emissions by 40% by 2030. During this new five-year period, the rate of this reduction in emissions will therefore have to almost double to meet these commitments. And more than a political promise, it is a legal necessity that Emmanuel Macron must face. The Council of State is clear: France is not doing enough to meet its objectives. The authority had given nine months to the State to act, and should, after the expiry of the deadline at the end of March, decide again on this file in the coming months.
A program falling short of objectives
“Being in line with the trajectory of carbon neutrality in 2050 implies changing the way of moving, getting out of fossil fuels, renovating housing to promote energy efficiency, or even reforming agriculture, while thinking about the consequences on the purchasing power and the impact of these changes on the most vulnerable”, list Anne Bringault, coordinator of programs within the network of NGOs Réseau action climat (RAC). This need for acceleration seems to have been heard by Emmanuel Macron who assured, during the debate between the two rounds against Marine Le Pen, to want to go “twice as fast in the coming five-year period”.
To achieve this, the President intends to decarbonize the energy mix by continuing the construction of the first six new generation nuclear power plants, by multiplying by ten the power produced by solar energy and by aiming to install 50 wind farms at sea by 2050. Promises that go in the right direction, but which do not yet fully convince the associations. “These proposals are based on the development of future technologies such as next-generation reactors or offshore wind farms that have been awaited for several years… We should start today with the technologies we already have such as onshore wind, solar and biogas”, assures Jean-Baptiste Lebrun. “When we look at Emmanuel Macron’s program, we realize that it does not make it possible to achieve France’s climate objectives, and these objectives will even have to be raised by 2030, so at this stage it will be necessary to additional measures”, abounds Anne Bringault.
Insufficient funding
Emmanuel Macron has promised to renovate 700,000 homes to make them more energy efficient, but the measure does not seem to persuade the RAC ecologist who underlines the lack of precision in the qualifications of these renovations. “Of the 500,000 renovations during its previous five-year term, only 70,000 made it possible to achieve type A or B energy labels, so this objective leaves us very dubious”.
All of this will have a cost, which is particularly high when you look at the investments needed to transform France. The president has planned to invest an additional 10 billion euros per year to make this transition a success, but here again the experts point to a figure below the sums necessary. The Institute of Economics for Climate (I4CE) has thus calculated that despite a welcome increase in climate-friendly state spending in recent years, there will still be a shortfall of 13 to 17 billion per year over the period 2021-2023 in order to that our country remains in the nails vis-à-vis its national low carbon strategy (SNBC). And twice that amount would be needed for the period 2023-2024.
Themes still forgotten
To achieve his ambition of an “ecological nation”, the French president will above all have to initiate a strong political reform imprinting ecology within the action of the various ministries. A program requiring planning to which Emmanuel Macron seems to have converted. In a speech in Marseille tinged with ecological commitments, he undertook to appoint a Prime Minister “directly in charge of ecological planning”. A concept borrowed from Jean-Luc Mélenchon, which could make it possible to strengthen arbitrations favorable to ecology and to structure interministerial coordination on the subject.
A recent note written by the adviser to the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), Lucien Chabason thus underlined the major upheaval that this transition represents for governance, comparing it to the “organizational challenge of modernizing the country after the Liberation”. He thus noted the need to entrust the control of this transition mission to the Prime Minister. “Structurally organizing the State to steer the transition is good, but beyond the symbol, concrete measures are needed in the organization of the government so that this does not remain a back-and-forth effect… The High Council for the climate or the Citizens’ Convention have shown it to us”, warns Jean-Baptiste Lebrun.
Finally, to succeed in making France a “great ecological nation”, the President of the Republic will also have to position himself on themes that are still not very present in his program, such as the protection of biodiversity, the fight against atmospheric pollution, or adaptation to climate change. Subjects that are an integral part of this ecology that Emmanuel Macron wants to embody on a national but also global scale. “At the international level, France has a responsibility and it is always easier to weigh diplomatically on certain causes when we are exemplary in this area”, recalls Armelle Lecomte, climate advocacy manager at Oxfam. The credibility of French leadership on ecological issues also depends on this.