February 11, 2022. Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, said that a Russian “invasion” in Ukraine could “start at any time”. The DGSE and the European secret services are perplexed. They have the same information on the parking of Russian regiments on the border, but judge the irrational maneuver. “The United States was more affirmative because the CIA had to have a human source within the Kremlin, which knew Putin’s intentions,” thinks Bernard Barbier, technical director of the DGSE from 2006 to 2013. A mole whose probable existence said a lot of American excellence when it comes to espionage. Putin will order the invasion eleven days later.
“Human intelligence in Eastern Europe and Russia has always been a delicate point,” recalls Bernard Bajolet, director of the DGSE from 2013 to 2017. Excellent when it comes to activating his sources in Africa or in the Middle East, the French intelligence service has long disinvested its networks in the east. In 2013, the DGSE, for example, gave up its post in kyiv. “France must monitor its interests around the world. And as our means are not extensible, we must make choices,” observes an old DGSE executive. Decisions necessarily recalibrated when the threat changes its face: the “box” reinvested Ukraine in 2021, and has since refocused part of its sensors on the east of the continent. “But the reorientation of human information necessarily takes time,” notes Bajolet. You have to reinstall yourself on land, contact sources, reinvest a network. Catch up with lost time.
This catch-up has become essential before the procrastination of the United States. The suspension, then the restoration of information exchanges between Washington and kyiv, in recent days, have cast doubt on the reliability of the American partner. These uncertainties push Europeans to position themselves. In an interview with France Inter on March 6, the Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu assured that Paris provides intelligence to Ukraine. “On the ground, very schematically, the origin of intelligence is divided into three: a third from the Americans, a third of the Ukrainians, and the rest of the other powers, therefore Europeans”, explains Jérôme Poirot, former deputy intelligence coordinator. Despite less important means than those of American agencies, the DGSE and the DRM (Military Intelligence Directorate), manage to obtain substantial information on the ground. They will have to gain momentum, at a time when Europe realizes that it will probably have to do without the United States.
Effective imaging
The walk to be crossed is important. “Our information capacities are far from negligible, especially in the technical field, interceptions and imaging”, insists Bernard Bajolet. This March 6, France put in orbit the CSO-3, the last component of a “constellation” of three military optical satellites. “They make it possible to obtain a resolution and a capacity superior to the previous satellites, of the Helios system. The intelligence services can see what is going on at a large level of details, which has nothing to envy to American technology,” notes Bernard Barbier. Nothing, otherwise the number. When France has a constellation of limited but lasting satellites-the CSO mission must last ten years-the United States has chosen a less sustainable technology. “The Americans have opted for ‘disposable’ satellites’. They launch a lot, in a low orbit, which uses them faster – their lifespan is one year, resumes Bernard Barbier. But this allows them to transmit more images and faster than ours.” When a French satellite must provide an evolution of the battlefield every hour, American agencies can transmit almost continuous images. “In terms of imaging, the frequency makes it possible to obtain a greater level of precision,” observes Christophe Gomart, former director of the DRM, now a European deputy (LR).
“There is no photo: the help of DRM in Ukraine already exists. It can never replace American support. The capacities of the United States are ten times higher than ours,” annoys a former director of the DRM. To understand this, it is enough to mirror the workforce of the DGSE – around 10,000 people -, of the DRM – around 2,000 people – and those of the American intelligence community – which exceeds 100,000 civil servants. In some sectors, deficiencies would even be impossible to compensate today. At the start of the war, American companies Microsoft and Google offered their services to the Ukrainian army, hosting military data on their servers. France is now unable to replace American aid in the matter. “This is a discussion that I had with several leaders of information: everyone finds that we have a real concern for autonomy, that we are unable to fill in the short term,” says Bernard Barbier. And to continue, optimistic: “But in four or five years, we will probably be able.”
The risk of “five eyes”
An increased collaboration with European intelligence services would make it possible to better compensate for a possible American defect. Last year, the director of the MI6 Richard Moore and his French counterpart, Nicolas Lerner, even gave a concert conference at the Embassy of the United Kingdom in Paris. “The British-with whom we already collaborate-have excellent services, even if they remain dependent on the United States,” notes Bernard Bajolet. London benefits abundantly from Washington data thanks to the Five Eyes system, which dedicates the intelligence partnership of the United States and Anglo-Saxon countries (United Kingdom, Canada, New Zealand, Australia). An advantage, which has now become risky for British sovereignty.
Germany, Italy and Sweden are also equipped with intelligence services welcomed by experts-but who are still inconvenient with those of the United States. “France and Europe have remarkable capacities and potential on certain sample niches,” said François de Lapresle, former deputy director of DRM. But dependence on the Americans, long -standing allies, cannot be supplanted or offset as it is. To do it, it will take time – and a lot of money. In 2023, the US intelligence budget reached $ 72 billion (66 billion euros). In France, he was approaching 500 million euros. 132 times less.
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