Having a neighbor such as Russia imposes vigilance. Estonia knows it only too well. One morning in May, last year, the border guards of the Balte country discovered with surprise that the buoys delimiting the border with Russia, placed in the middle of the Narva river, had been removed during the night. The European Union had described the case as “unacceptable provocation”. The act unfortunately hardly surprised Estonia. With Russia, “there have always been tensions, explains Margus Tsahkna, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the country at L’Express, during a meeting at the Estonia Embassy. For us, it is unfortunately normal.”
Constantly increasing “pressures”
For the past year, the Baltic Sea has been the scene of many incidents aimed at underwater cables. In November 2024, cables connecting Finland and Germany were damaged. In December, it was the cable islink2, between Finland and Estonia, which was damaged. In January 2025, again, the cable connecting a Swedish island and Latvia was targeted. Russia is suspected of being at the origin of all these acts of sabotage.
For Estonia, the most striking example remains the 2007 cyber attack. After having announced that a statue dating from the Soviet occupation would be moved, the government faced a large -scale cyber attack, spread over 22 days. The sites of government agency, banks, several newspapers as well as that of the Parliament were targeted by “DDOS”, attacks which make sites inaccessible by flooding them with artificial requests. Since 2007, these attacks have never stopped. “We are constantly targeted by Russian hackers or North Korea,” said Margus Tsahkna. The Minister of Foreign Affairs – who is also in charge of CYBER questions – evokes the case of a government site having undergone “3 billion connection attempts” in a few hours. A massive attack, but remained almost invisible for Estonian citizens: “All our sites have been good”.
In a country where almost all public services are dematerialized, ensuring their availability is a crucial issue. “We invest massively in our cyberfense. We are constantly collaborating with our private companies, and recruiting the best hackers in the world so that they hack us. They do not succeed, slip the minister with a smile. I think we are among the best in the world in terms of cybersecurity.” The country is also one of those who use the internet vote the most, a sign of strong confidence in its computer system. “This returns the very important signal that we are able to protect one of the most fragile parties of democracy, the vote.”
The rapidly growing Estonian defense industry
This hybrid and permanent confrontation with Russia nevertheless maintains Estonia in a state of perpetual tension, and more than ever recalls its position. Sharing 300 kilometers of border with its gigantic neighbor, Estonia would be on the front line in the event of a military action. “For the past year, there have been more pressures,” alert Margus Tsahkna. The whole country is aware of this, and is preparing for a possible intensification of the conflict.
Estonia announced this Tuesday, March 18, increase its defense expenses to at least 5 % of its GDP from 2026. It was already one of the few NATO countries to devote 3 % of its GDP to it. The country recently undertook the fortification of its border, by starting the construction of 600 bunkers along its border with Russia, and spent 1.6 billion euros for the purchase of ammunition on the year 2024. The checks at the crossing points between the two countries have intensified. “We control each person, each vehicle and each property that crosses”. Tactics have already borne fruit. “We arrested more than thirteen people in Estonia last year, for actions that had been funded, coordinated and organized by the Russian secret services,” said the minister.
The most notable change has certainly occurred at the level of the private defense industry. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the sector has experienced rapid development. In 2022, she reached a peak in income (250 million euros). According to the association of the Estonian defense industry, it could reach 1 billion euros by 2030, with an increase in exports and domestic demand. An already palpable trend: between 2022 and 2023, the export income in the sector increased by almost 60 %. The number of employees in the sector also believed more than 17 % over the same period.
Equipment developed and built in Estonia is already found on the battlefield, Ukraine. Milrem Robotic’s unmanned armored vehicles equip the Ukrainian army and are used for recognition missions and the evacuation of wounded. Surveillance drones and artificial intelligence of Defsecintel are used for soldiers’ patrols. Brading technology even makes it possible to neutralize opposing drones. Another start-up, Frankenburg Technologies, which develops small missiles to destroy drones, has to start trials in Ukraine this year.
This is only the start: in January, the Estonian government announced the creation of an investment fund of 100 million euros for start-ups specializing in new defense technologies located in Estonia or in NATO countries. The country wishes to put its emerging industry in the spotlight: when Margus Tsahkna came to Paris, it was accompanied by the leaders of some of these start-ups. But collaboration between the two countries goes beyond companies. “We act a lot in Ukraine alongside many countries, especially in terms of reconstruction,” said the minister. Estonia is also at the head of an initiative for cyberfense, and is very active on the issue of civil hostages and deported children. “We are working tirelessly to bring them back. We know the names of more than 20,000 Ukrainians who have been removed and brought to Russia.” The efforts undertaken by Estonia, in collaboration with Ukraine, Bosnia and Qatar, have made it possible to repatriate a hundred Ukrainians, says Margus Tsahkna.
After years to alert to the Russian threat, Estonia is delighted to see the European Defense initiative, presented by Ursula Van der Leyen, of 800 billion euros. “We really have to take advantage of this momentum, even if it may be ten years too late. Europe must wake up,” he insists. “There have already been a lot of warning signals that have not been taken seriously. Russia will be more and more aggressive.” But everything is not lost, far from it, says Margus Tsahkna. Today, “Russia is not ready to attack.” Putin’s army is currently entirely mobilized in Ukraine, and concentrates all its resources. “We must understand that the Ukrainians are not only fighting for themselves and for us, but in our place. When I was Minister of Defense, there was in Russia, on the other side of our border, 120,000 soldiers ready to attack. These troops no longer exist, because they were eliminated by the Ukrainians.”
Thanks to kyiv’s troops, “Russia no longer has a large scale capacities ready to be deployed”, according to him. But if a hasty and unfavorable peace agreement in Ukraine is concluded, “all this could be lost”. Russia could quickly reconstruct its forces, and move its troops again. “According to our information, they are already preparing for more scale capacities. We must understand that we have a period of three to five years,” warns the minister. Until then, European and Estonian defense must be ready. “But that does not mean that Russia will not try to test NATO. They do not need a large -scale attack, just to cause enough to see if NATO is able to react.” At that time, it shouldn’t be trembled, he warns.
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