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Full -screen photography on US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo: AP/TT
Today’s phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin involves a critical breaking point in the ceasefire negotiations, says Russian expert Mark Galeotti.
– After today, we will have a much clearer picture of where the Russians stand.
So far, the Russian president has been winding up for the ceasefire. But as he now lifts the handset with his American colleague, it becomes more difficult, the British political scientist and historian Mark Galeotti predict.
– I expect he knows he needs to give a proper answer, he says.
Putin had probably delayed a ceasefire until they managed to clear the Kursk border region from Ukrainian soldiers – and until they have through more of their demands, says Galeotti. But the clock is ticking.
– They know that if they dismiss Trump, they miss a historical opportunity to normalize relationships (with the United States) and have the sanctions lift.
According to Trump, the conversation with Putin will be about “dividing certain assets”. Among other things, they will discuss land areas and power plants, the president stated the other day.
Rusta up
Right now, the feeling is that Trump is pouring gifts over Russia, says Galeotti. However, it can change quickly if Trump feels badly treated.
– Putin certainly knows that things can be very problematic. A released Donald Trump would be much less restrictive to Russia than, for example, Joe Biden was, the British predicts.
The question is what Putin really requires to say yes to the US proposed ceasefire. The Trump Speaker Steve Witkoff, who was in Moscow last week, has not wanted to comment on whether it was a recognition of Russian -checked Ukrainian regions, stops of Western Ukrainian support or a ban on foreign peacekeeping forces in Ukraine.
Anyway, Russia will benefit from the month -long ceasefire that is on the negotiating table, Galeotti believes.
– The Russians try to portray it as Ukraine benefit most from a ceasefire, but it will be advantageous for Russia by 30 days to regroup and equip, he says – and warns of continued attacks after that.
Trump is losing interest?
That analysis makes several assessors. A ceasefire will give Russia respite to attack again, warns the American think tank isw, while assessors on the think tank Atlantic Council notes that Putin is likely to feel far from ready with Ukraine.
What happens after a ceasefire depends entirely on how the 30 days leave, says Mark Galeotti.
– Are both sides willing to make the type of compromise that is necessary (for long -term peace)?
– If the answer is no, we will have 30 days of respite, but then the war is running again. And by that point, it is possible that Trump has lost interest.