Despite a complex environment, 2024 turned out to be a promising for investors, thanks to the slowdown in inflation, increased global scholarships and the proper remuneration of booklets and term accounts. Vincent Mortier, director of management of the Amundi group, evokes the stock market investment opportunities in 2025.
L’Express: Is the context conducive to risk taking?
Vincent Mortier It is necessary to take identified and calculated risks, but not all risks. Currently, the financial system remains abundantly supplied with capital, the result of past monetary and budget policies as well as plethora. These liquidity seek to be invested, which supports the markets, but they can also cause excess. So you have to be selective and seek diversification.
In addition, we observe a phenomenon of “gamification” of investment since the COVIR, particularly in the United States. In this largest savings pool in the world, many individuals are exposed to the stock market, and more and more often via risky and leverage products. As long as the markets are growing, the situation is favorable, but, in the event of a correction, losses could be significant.
How do you approach the US markets?
In terms of valuation, these markets display historically high levels, measured by the course ratio on profit (PE). Volatility is low and the rise in courses has focused on a small number of values. Given the enthusiasm of investors and hopes aroused by Donald Trump’s policy, this market could remain expensive for a while. Many bad news would be needed to radically modify their feeling. In this context, we favor the equipped indices, less valued and less exposed to sectoral biases than the indices weighted by capitalization. In addition, since the election of Donald Trump, we have maintained our exposure to American actions, while protecting our portfolios with options covering a possible decline in the next six months. These financial products, also accessible to individuals, are currently inexpensive.
Isn’t diversification another form of protection?
Indeed, we identify numerous decorrelated markets of the United States offering interesting diversification opportunities. This is particularly the case of India, where companies display regular growth and promising prospects. The valuations are high, but the solid fundamentals of this economy justify it.
We are also positive on Japan, despite the strong increases of 2024. Opportunities remain, especially in domestic companies, especially since the Yen could appreciate against the dollar.
Provided you adopt a long -term investment horizon, China is also an interesting bet. Second world economy, in full transformation and innovative, it presents particularly low valuations. From the low point affected last November, the macroeconomic context has improved thanks to more accommodating monetary policies of the Central Bank. It is better to avoid megacapitalizations, too linked to political power, and favor the well -managed SMEs of which the country is full.
What event could investors could bring to better feeling about China?
In the short term, turbulence could occur due to the establishment of customs barriers by the United States, followed by Chinese retaliation measures. But, once these tensions have been stabilized, a form of compromise could emerge. In addition, China needs a clear agenda of measures to restore the confidence of local investors. Finally, we hope to announce a massive support plan for domestic consumption, which the authorities have the means to implement.
Can stock market decoupling between the United States and Europe last?
In Europe, growth prospects are more limited, numerous political uncertainties, and demographic dynamics are not very favorable. These factors justify in part that the market is treated cheaper than in the United States. However, the current magnitude of this discount reflects a lot of pessimism, in particular vis-à-vis France, which undergoes a depreciation of the order of 10 % since the dissolution of the National Assembly. The establishment of an ambitious recovery plan in Germany after the February elections could change the situation by energizing the euro zone, including France, its main trading partner. Another good surprise peace agreement in Ukraine would be likely to relaunch the area.
Can we be optimistic for France?
Foreign investors are looking at the trajectory of deficit digging. An inflection, even modest, would be perceived positively. They also monitor the balance between revenue and expenses: increases in higher taxes to the drop in expenses would be poorly received, but the vote of a balanced budget, without censorship of the government, would send a signal favorable to rating agencies and international investors. Finally, it should be kept in mind that large CAC 40 companies are little exposed to the national economy, which explains the resistance of the index in 2024.
Do you integrate gold into your allowances?
For several years, with an allowance of 5 to 10 %. This position is justified by the role of diversification and the potential for increasing precious metal. The demand, mainly from central banks and sovereign funds of Central Asia and China wishing to reduce their sensitivity to the dollar, remains sustained. For example, the Chinese central bank increased the gold share in its 4.6 % to 6 % reserves in one year. This structural trend should continue to support courses.
Do bond markets remain attractive?
We have entered, almost all over the world, in a cycle of reduced short rates. It is a global movement of central banks, even if it should be less marked than anticipated in the United States due to the inflationary policy of Donald Trump.
On the other hand, we do not have the same anticipations on long rates, which react to uncertainty, long -term inflation as well as the law of supply and demand. In particular, countries that need to issue a lot of debt must offer sufficient remuneration to attract investors. This is the case of the United States whose debt trajectory projections involve extraordinary broadcast amounts. Rates at 10 American years recently reached 4.7 %, offering an attractive level of return. However, after a period of mechanical growth under the effect of Donald Trump’s policy, the economy should slow down strongly. By mid-2026, the Fed should return to a more accommodating monetary policy, which will lead to a decline in the rates within 4 % and therefore an appreciation of the current titles. In addition, certain obligations from emerging countries are attractive because they offer a higher remuneration of 1 to 2 % for an equivalent risk.
Finally, concerning the debt issued by companies,, We favor the investment grade segment in the United States as in Europe, the surplus of remuneration offered for lower quality titles not being sufficient.
What should be taken care of in the coming months?
We will remain vigilant about the effective decisions of Donald Trump and the evolution of interest rates. A possible accident on the bond markets, although unlikely, could have global repercussions.
An article in the special file “Placements: our 40 advice for 2025”, published in the Express of February 20.