(Finance) – The international context It is characterized by high uncertainty. The last note it ESSTAT conjunctural bulletinindicating that the entry into force, albeit still partial, of U.S. duties 25% towards the imports of Canada and Mexico, and the further 10% imposed on Chinese products, suggests a growing probability of escalation in commercial tensions. The latter are added to the pre -existing geopolitical turbulence And they could negatively affect world demand, inflation and global chains of value.
The Institute also reports that, at the end of 2024, the international exchanges of goods are climbed, but the expectations for global trade remain negative and further aggravated by the possible escalation of commercial and geopolitical tensions.
Inflation is no longer the main economic problem internationally but continues to represent a relevant risk. At this stage, the pressure pressure on prices are limited but not negligible and new inflationary risks, linked to the economic and geopolitical scenario, are emerging.
In the face of a US economy that shows a slight but widespread dynamism, the Economic growth of the euro area He was revised up in the last quarter of the year, with perspectives in moderate improvement. However, economic dynamism in Europe was significantly lower than that of other areas, such as the United States and Asian countries.
Italian GDP was in a marginal growth at the end of 2024. In 2024 he grew up in volume of 0.7%, showing a progressive deceleration during the year. In the fourth quarter, after the stationarity of the previous three months, the GDP recorded one conjunctural growth of 0.1%. The result was better than that of Germany and France (where the economic data in the fourth quarter was equal, respectively, at -0.1%and -0.2%) and worse than that of Spain (+0.8%).
The index of the industrial production scored a strong reboundwith a situation of 3.2%, which has more than compensated the marked December decline (-2.7%). However, the business trust has worsened in all sectors with the exception of the manufacture.
On the front of consumersthere was a Improvement of sentimentmainly driven by the assessments on the personal economic situation. Also good on the front ofemploymentwhich in January recorded a widespread increasewith a number of employed that is equal to 24 million 222 thousand units. Growth involved men, women and individuals of all ages except for 35-49-year-olds. For professional position, employment has increased both among employees and the autonomous. The employment rate went up to 62.8% (+0.4 points from December). Parallel, unemployment and inactivity rate has decreased. Also noteworthy is the strong increase in contractual wages In nominal terms (+3.1%), with a wider growth in the private sector (+4%).
As for theinflationalbeit slightly up, has remained lower than the average one of the euro area. The harmonized index of consumer prices marked, both in January and in February, a trend increase of 1.7%.
The focus this month concerns exports of Italy and EU to third countries. In this regard, Istat notes that On the future of European exchanges weighs numerous risks downward, including international commercial frictions and the possible escalation of geopolitical tensions that would create new obstacles to global distribution and supply chains. The growing use of “introverted” industrial policies in many countries and the protectionist guidelines in commercial policy, especially of United Statesthey could also negatively influence the growth of trade in the short and medium term. From the report it emerges that the US are among the main partners of Italy: in 2024 they absorbed over 10% of total sales abroad of our country, (a value similar to that of Germany, but higher than that of France and Spain) and over a fifth of the sales of Italian products intended for non -European markets.