The battles have been going on since Thursday on the Syrian Mediterranean coast, an area where several groups reside. On Sunday, the Syrian Human Rights Observatory (SOHR) reports that over 1,000 people have been killed, the majority of them should have belonged to the Shiite minority Alawiter. The death figures have not been confirmed by other sources.
– You should not speculate too much. The figures come from an infamous unreliable exile group, SOHR, which does not indicate any sources for their numbers. But it can be noted that many people have been killed, says Aron Lund, active at the Swedish Defense Research Institute.
The violent battles were partly expected, as the situation was tense in the area since the dictator Bashar al-Assad was overthrown in December. He himself belongs to the Alawitic minority and the group has been worried since al-Assad was worried.
– The Alawites were afraid that they would be punished for what the previous regime did, says Aron Lund.
The clashes of recent days must have started after supporters of the previous regime attacked the new security forces. After that, a revenge spiral must have arisen, after which rebel groups and supporters of the new regime have attacked civilians.
When Bashar al-Assad’s rule was overthrown, the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham took over power in the country. According to Aron Lund, the change of power has gone more friction -free than had first thought.
– Many had expected that this type of violence and religiously killed would be in connection with Assad’s case, explains Aron Lund.
US can retain sanctions
However, he believes that the latest developments can make both Alawiter and other minorities more hostile to the new regime.
– If you now see that the new security forces commit massacres or do not want or can stop other groups from violence, it can make the situation more difficult.
Aron Lund also believes that violence can affect the support of the outside world to Syria, especially the United States can become more skeptical.
– This can cause both the US and European countries to refuse to raise sanctions, which can lead to an economic collapse in Syria.