PRESIDENTIAL POLL. The latest polls on the second round of the presidential election still place Emmanuel Macron as the big favorite against Marine Le Pen. Check out the latest numbers and our compilation of the in-between-round polls.
[Mis à jour le 22 avril 2022, à 23h59] The latest polls published on the second round of the presidential election, last Friday, all give Emmanuel Macron the winner this Sunday, April 24, 2022 against Marine Le Pen with 55 to 57% of the vote against 43 to 45% for the candidate of the National Rally. . The polls measuring the voting intentions of this Macron-Le Pen duel have, with a certain consistency, given the first favorite for a second term and the second loser. And this since the beginning of the campaign. But never has the far right seemed so close to power, against a backdrop of declining participation.
Because apart from the polls, the French are faced with a historic choice: to renew the outgoing president, which has never been done, apart from cohabitation, since the adoption of direct universal suffrage in 1962, or elect a woman, which would be a first, and thus propel the far right to the Elysée for an explosion that would resonate well beyond French borders, comparable to the British Brexit and the election of Donald Trump in the United States in 2016.
The flood of polls published since the beginning of the year or even well before is now cut off. Since Friday midnight, the campaign is officially over. Public meetings, distribution of leaflets and digital propaganda of the candidates are prohibited. Before the results on Sunday at 8 p.m., no interviews or polls or estimates of results can be published.
Polls do not constitute forecasts of the results of the presidential election. It is simply a photograph of the opinion taken at a precise moment. Several factors are difficult to measure: the abstention rate, the indecision of voters until the last moment and the margin of error present in all the polls. Thus, the ballot is far from over.
The end of the campaign and the debate between the two rounds seem rather to benefit Emmanuel Macron. The outgoing president is credited with 56.5% of the voting intentions expressed against 43.5% for Marine Le Pen. According to the Ipsos poll for Le Monde published Friday evening, the voters of the RN candidate are 92% sure of their choice, against 94% for the head of state. Since the evening of the first round, the lead of the outgoing president has continued to widen from ten to thirteen points with the far-right candidate.
The “latest poll” featured here may come from different polling institutes, and each has a different methodology. Here are the ones that appear alternately on this page, with links to find out more about each survey.
What do the polls say about this revenge between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, five years after an identical second round in 2017? Even before the first round of this 2022 presidential election was held, polls had been published in the event of a second round confrontation in the presidential election between the RN candidate and the outgoing president. All the polls carried out before the first round gave Emmanuel Macron the winner. These pre-first round polls have been supplemented by new studies carried out since Sunday, April 10.
2nd round debate poll
The Elabe Institute carried out a survey for BFM TV, L’Express and SFR at the end of the debate between the two rounds, on a representative panel of 650 people who watched the discussions. 59% of respondents felt that Emmanuel Macron had been “more convincing” (39% for Marine Le Pen). Another lesson from this poll: 53% of viewers polled thought that Emmanuel Macron was the one who “has the most qualities to be President of the Republic” (28% for Marine Le Pen); the outgoing president is considered to be more “capable of bringing the French people together” (36% against 31%), more dynamic (49% against 31%); he is also perceived as having the “best project” (44% against 31%), but also as the “most arrogant” (50% against 16%).
Poll on the certainty of the Macron or Le Pen vote
This is important data to identify the probability that the dynamics of the polls will reverse or accelerate: have voting intentions already crystallized and to what extent? According toa very robust Ipsos Sopra Steria / Cevipof study for Le Monde, 69% of French people said they were sure they would vote on April 18, 2022 (57% among 18-24 year olds, 56% among 25-34 year olds, but 78% among 60-69 year olds and 82% among 70 years and older). Another data: 93% of voters thinking of voting Emmanuel Macron say they are certain of their second-round choice, 89% of voters thinking of voting Marine Le Pen also. But 43% of people thinking of abstaining or voting blank or null say they can change their minds.
What do the polls say about vote carryovers?
The postponement of the votes of the 7.7 million voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon is one of the key issues of the second round of the presidential election. Some polls specify the voting intentions of those voters who voted for the Insoumis in the first round and provide an idea of trends and possible vote carryovers for the second round.
According to the survey BVA for Orange er RTL published on April 22, 2022, 27% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s voters are inclined to give their vote to the outgoing president, a figure that is falling. The majority of them say “for the moment they want to vote blank (24%; +2) or abstain (31%; +1)”. “Only 18% would vote for Marine Le Pen. It’s a very small minority but nevertheless twice as many as in 2017 (8%)”, analyzes the institute.
According to the Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for Le Monde published on April 20, 36% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s voters intended to vote for Emmanuel Macron, 19% for Marine Le Pen and 45% intended to abstain.
According to the survey Ifop carried out for TFI-LCI on April 10 gave the electorate of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, very divided: 33% intended on this date to vote for Emmanuel Macron against 23% for Marine Le Pen while 44% lean for a blank vote, null or abstention.