The race against the clock started for Europe. It is now clear: the “Trump revolution” will be without it and perhaps against it. But everything is not lost, assures the former ambassador Michel Duclos, special advisor at the Montaigne Institute. “Europeans must act very quickly, considering that Americans can desert at any time.”
L’Express: The altercation between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump on February 28 and the suspension of American aid to Ukraine sign the death of the Transatlantic Alliance?
Michel Duclos :: The decision to suspend assistance to Ukraine confirms the worst apprehensions of Europeans. Transatlantic disagreements are as old as the alliance. But they previously focused on means, doctrine, politics, commercial affairs. There, a much deeper fracture has just opened, a gaping gap between two visions of the world. It is an essential lesson, learned in pain by Europeans, who discover with amazement that the United States has changed camps. Geopolitically, they are now closer to Russia than Europe. And defend, like her, an illiberal conception of power.
Was Europe naive?
Naive, surely. And guilty of not having used Biden years to acquire real autonomy. In addition, we have not seen the “Trump Revolution” coming to values. Trump II surprised, including after his election, endorsing the clothes of expansionism, aimed at Canada, Greenland … He joins the conception of Russia, China and certain countries of the Global South, of a new world order based on spheres of influence.
What can Europe in the face of this new deal?
Europeans become Gaullists and the British become European. This is at least good news! Until now, Emmanuel Macron has had the ability not to claim to be the sole leader of Europe but to play a card to the Briton by trying to love Trump while pursuing the French agenda of European strategic autonomy. Europeans have no choice, they have to do everything to keep the Americans on board and prepare, at the same time, to do without them.
What is the procedure to do with it?
Collective decisions must be made in terms of European Union financing, whether it is a new loan or optimization of underused resources. In addition, states must take measures nationwide. In France, we must increase our defense expenses and revise our military programming law by orienting it more on European theater. Similarly, if the debate on extended nuclear deterrence is becoming clearer, the first thing to do is to strengthen our nuclear arsenal, as did the British last year, announcing an investment of 900 million euros by 2030.
Finally, you have to change narrative. Let’s finish with the idea of a frail and divided Europe. If we look at our economy, our demography, it is enough for an important effort, certainly, but not out of reach, for Europeans to restore a favorable balance of power with Russia. On the front, the Russians progress millimeter after millimeter against a Ukraine which is four times less populated than them, with bric and broc equipment and a very lower strategic depth than that of Russia. That the Russian military challenge cannot be taken up by the European nations would be very strange.
Do you imagine a scenario in which Europe, torn, would let go of Zelensky?
It is unlikely. Let us become aware of the forces of current Europe. There are opposite winds, in Hungary, Slovakia and elsewhere, but it is also democracy. Let us not forget that the weak democracies of the post-war period in Europe were able to take up the Soviet challenge. Stronger, we are able to take up the Russian challenge today, even if the Americans defection.
How ?
First by increasing the sanctions against Russia and the pressure on Vladimir Putin because it is very unlikely that it seriously considers a cease-fire in Ukraine. In front of Trump’s weakness, he will want to raise the auctions. Charge to Europe to run the table. This is the goal of the Franco-British plan, which plays on the intelligence of Trump mediator. If the latter takes into account the European plan, it will be in Putin to finally reveal itself. So, we will realize that he is absolutely not ready for peace.
What to do with 250 billion frozen Russian assets in Europe?
It must be seized, using legal flaws around the principle of “sovereign immunity”, which in theory protects states and their property in theory. We could for example use these assets to finance a loan to Ukraine which will be reimbursed in the context of the repairs that Russia owes to Ukraine, in the future. Some financial experts argue that the questioning of property rights would scare away Asian or the Gulf investors. Let us oppose them a counter argument: if Ukraine loses, the credibility of Europe in the world, including on this financial field, will collapse.
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