CASTEX. Emmanuel Macron now re-elected for a second term, Jean Castex should soon announce his resignation. A possibility that the Prime Minister had already mentioned during the between-two-rounds. When will he make his announcement and who could succeed him? The Internet user deciphers the situation.
[Mis à jour le 24 avril 2022 à 23h48] Jean Castex had said it: “If Emmanuel Macron is re-elected, I will present my resignation”. The condition is now fulfilled since the outgoing president has left for a new five-year term. This April 24, Emmanuel Macron gathered 58.8% of the vote, according to estimates by Ipsos Steria for France 2, against Marine Le Pen who convinced 41.2% of the French. Jean Castex had warned of his resignation in the event of Emmanuel Macron’s re-election, but now remains to be seen when he will put his promise into effect. And why ? Back to this astonishing statement by the outgoing head of government.
This is the news that had circulated during this between-two-rounds. Emmanuel Macron was already ready to appoint a new Prime Minister the week following his re-election. Officially, however, Emmanuel Macron’s mandate ends on May 13, which would have left Jean Castex a good month to decide what to do next. But no, he made his choice: he will submit his resignation during the week of April 25. He explained it during his appearance on France Inter on April 19: if Emmanuel Macron were declared the winner on the evening of April 24, the entire current government, including him, would pack up. “If the president is re-elected, the Republican custom is that, in the days that follow, the Prime Minister submits the resignation of his government. I will comply with this Republican custom,” he explained.
The objection to this choice is quite obvious: in theory, a resignation does not necessarily entail a departure, the President of the Republic having the possibility of reappointing a resigning minister to his post. But this is not the opinion of Jean Castex, who hinted that he was of the opinion of definitively leaving the entourage of the head of state if he is re-elected at the Elysée. Is it by difference of opinion with the outgoing president? In any case, this is not what he expressed in his statement on France Inter : “Obviously, I am one of those who strongly hope that the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, will be re-elected on Sunday, and this is our major subject of mobilization this week”, thus ensuring that he continued to support the candidacy of his superior, and this until the last moment. This decision would actually be based more on the desire to breathe new life into French political life: “I am one of those who think that a new impetus must be found”, he declared, still on April 19.
Is this the end of the prerogatives for the man from Matignon? Arriving in government in July 2020, the day after the municipal elections, it would seem that Jean Castex’s ministerial stay must be cut short. It’s surprising, and yet, we were warned, Emmanuel Macron having himself declared during an interview given to the Figaro beginning of April: “It will take a burst the day after the presidential election to give new impetus”. It is now a certainty: in the case of the re-election of Emmanuel Macron, Jean Castex would resign immediately, from the week following the presidential election. But was it an obligation for him? This rapid departure of the Prime Minister is not written into any legal text: it is rather a “courtesy resignation” and a republican tradition practiced since 1879. Jean Castex would thus seek to be part of the legacy of the Fifth Republic. However, it is only in the cohabitation phase, i.e. the political situation in which the Prime Minister is on a political side opposed to that of the re-elected President, that this tradition has been respected (namely under the mandate of François Mitterrand elected in 1988 and under that of Jacques Chirac in 2002). The situation of the outgoing president’s government, if it is reappointed, would be unprecedented: it would automatically have a parliamentary majority and a government in its own camp. It would be the first time since the re-election of Charles de Gaulle in December 1965 with Georges Pompidou at Matignon. Jean Castex would therefore reverse the almost hegemonic situation of this government by leaving office.
If he is reappointed for a second term this Sunday, April 24, the current President of the Republic should appoint his new Prime Minister the day after or two days after the results, either April 25 or 26. The formalization of the government will take place in the middle of next week. If the LREM candidate wins, there would be no week of latency between the announcement of the verdict and the transfer of power. We remember the re-election of François Mitterrand on May 8, 1988: he appointed Michel Rocard Prime Minister on the 10th, and the formalization of the government followed on May 12 and 13. In the same way, when Jacques Chirac won hands down against Jean-Marie Le Pen on May 5, 2002, he appointed Jean-Pierre Raffarin to Matignon the next day, who formalized the names of his ministers on May 8. We we will therefore not have to wait long to know the choice of Emmanuel Macron if he were elected this evening. Moreover, it must be borne in mind that a new government will only be suspended, since another practice provides for a government to resign after the election of deputies. In reality, the importance and impact of this future reshuffle, as well as the progress of this next five-year term, will depend almost exclusively on the parliamentary majority that emerged from the ballot box in the legislative elections on 19th June next.
Le Canard enchaîné was the first to broadcast the news. March 16: Emmanuel Macron intends to carry out a profound reshuffle of the members of the government. According to the newspaper, which quotes a “reliable source” reporting remarks which would have been made by the president-candidate, “no more than four or five” ministers would be reappointed. Le Canard had therefore warned us: the modification will be substantial. If no name has yet been communicated, the first reflections are engaged, and noises from the corridor coming from the Elysée have revealed the most probable tracks. These echoes indicate that two women would be considered for Matignon, replacing Jean Castex: Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, the former director of the International Monetary Fund. She is also a former economy minister under Sarkozy, and the former president himself recommended her to Emmanuel Macron. But for the moment, the main interested party says she does not want to leave her post. Another name comes on top of the pile: that of Elisabeth Borne, the current Minister of Labor and former Minister of Transport. This information was relayed by Point and Le Figaro, the latter quoting Christophe Castaner, leader of the LREM deputies: “the two reforms considered “impossible” of the five-year term, on the SNCF and unemployment insurance, it was Élisabeth Borne who piloted them. However, given the eminently complex situation of future legislative elections, such a choice would be risky. In fact, Emmanuel Macron needs to convince the left, especially that of LFI, which represented 7.7 million voters in the first round. And the reforms carried out by Elisabeth Borne, who nevertheless belongs to this political family, have aroused strong opposition, which makes the minister almost irreconcilable with the left wing.
Finally, let us quote the words of Emmanuel Macron, who briefly mentioned the subject during an interview given to the Figaro on April 7: “In 2017, I made the unprecedented choice to appoint a Prime Minister who was not by my side during the campaign and who was not from my political family. I then made the same something with Jean Castex”, he commented, before adding: “you always have to choose the one that seems most compatible with what you want to wear at a given period. This will in any case suppose to continue to move forward in overcoming”. This overcoming of the political divisions of which the man from LREM so often speaks could thus benefit other parties, with a Prime Minister from another party… The rest this week!