A matter of a few minutes. As soon as the customs barriers noted by 10 % against China on February 4, Beijing replied with a series of targeted measures. Starting with the opening of an anti-monopoly survey against Google. A few weeks earlier, a similar scenario had played with Nvidia. There too, the coincidence was disturbing: an investigation against the American flagship launched shortly after the announcement of new restrictions on the export of semiconductors to China by the Biden administration.
It may be just a start. A few days ago, the Wall Street Journal revealed that the Chinese authorities concocted a list of American companies to put on the grill. Accusations immediately swept by Beijing. Among the potential targets, Apple’s name was mentioned by the Bloomberg agency. “The Chinese government leaks this kind of information to fuel rumors and show that it has the means to really hurt,” explains Alicia Garcia Herrero, an economist chef for Asia-Pacific at Natixis.
A negotiation lever
What are these surveys the name? “China loads its pistol, but does not yet shoot,” sums up Juliana Bouchaud, analyst at Rhodium Group, an independent research organization. In this trade war 2.0, there is no question of replying in a mirror. Beijing retained the lessons of his first confrontation with Donald Trump and now opts for a moderate and calculated response. This is evidenced by customs duties, announced in addition to the antitrust survey, confined to only a few American sectors. “China chooses an asymmetrical strategy, because a stroke of a blow for blow to limits: it matters much less than it exports to the United States, notes Martin Catarata, consultant at Sinolytics. It is likely that the investigations against American tech will multiply in the future”.
Certain decisions have above all symbol value. Google is little exposed in the country, its search engine has been operating there since 2010 since 2010. “It is above all the signal that China is ready to hit large technological companies and potentially, hurting their stock market,” notes Robert Gilholy, economist for emerging markets to the AbrDN investment company. For Apple, however, the stake would be much higher. China represents both a considerable market for the apple brand and a critical platform for the manufacture of its devices. A “symbiotic” relationship, as its managing director Tim Cook qualifies it. “For China, attacking Apple would be the last resort weapon,” concludes Alicia Garcia Herrero.
The pressure lever is all the more tempting since the bosses of American tech gravitate in the orbit of Donald Trump. Faced with the unpredictability of the American president, the Chinese government is delaying. “These surveys take time, which gives way to potential negotiations, analyzes Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce, senior economist in charge of world geopolitics at the standard bank Charterd. China could announce firmer measures against fentanyl traffic or take over the foundations of the trade agreement discussed during the first mandate of Donald Trump.” At the time, in 2020, the two powers were agreed that China would increase certain imports from the United States over a period of two years. The announced goal has never been achieved.
The use of antitrust surveys as a Chinese Modus Operandi is nothing new. Already in 2015, the American Qualcomm had received a fine of $ 975 million after an investigation of more than a year. Ten years later, the strategy nevertheless seems more offensive. Especially since since the first term of Donald Trump, the Middle Empire also muscled its regulatory arsenal, in particular by the reform of its anti-monopoly law in 2022. A new version which increased the penalties for sanctioned companies. Above all, China has gained skills. “These surveys are now more assumed and more frequently done, notes Juliana Bouchaud. This desire to tackle more strategic actors comes from the increased confidence of China in its technological autonomy, and because it can no longer count on the continuity of American investment.”
“The constraint creates the opportunity”
If China allows this replica, it is because it now has the means. In ten years, Beijing has built a robust technological ecosystem, at an unexpected speed, guided by the plan “Made in China 2025”. Baidu against Google, Huawei against Apple, or WeChat versus Whatsapp … Faced with American technologies, giants emerged. “The constraint creates the opportunity: thanks to American restrictions, China has won five years on the development of its digital platforms, in particular in the acquisition of subscribers and data collection, observes Gilles Babinet, co-president of the National Digital Council. Its Harmonyos operating system for smartphone has nothing to envy the American Android.” Recently, it was the lower cost artificial intelligence of Deepseek that made the crown of the American rival tremble.
In this area, an essential brick for Chinese wall is however lacking: advanced fleas, used to cause language models. The market remains dominated by Nvidia, which had to limit its exports on the orders of Washington. If the Huawei-Smic tandem is progressing in this area, it is far from worrying the American leader. “China’s delay on advanced fleas is seven to eight years. It can manage to compete with the United States but its production costs are still too high,” notes Gilles Babinet. In parallel, the country also invests in the development of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, essential for making these sophisticated chips. Dutch ASML is the world specialist, but China does not have access to its machines.
In addition to the pressure exerted on the United States, these investigations are also used to send some messages to Chinese companies, according to Robert Gilholy. “The antitrust file against Google seems a little light. It is Android which seems, in fact, at the heart of the survey. A way to push Chinese manufacturers to adopt the operating system of Huawei”, judges the economist of Abrdn. Same logic with Nvidia. “Attacking it is a way of putting pressure on local players, forcing laboratories to work with Chinese flea manufacturers, explains Robin Rivaton, director general of Stonal and columnist at L’Express. In hollow, this initiative also indicates in the United States that China will soon be able to disconnect-technologically-of America, and that export restrictions on the chips no longer scare it.”
To challenge America, Beijing can count on the richness of its basements. Its territory concentrates many critical materials, essential for the manufacture of semiconductors. Already, last December, exports of gallium and Germanium to the United States were prohibited. “It is a major retaliatory instrument against the United States, that China keeps under the elbow in case the relationship continues to get away,” says Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a sinologist and researcher at the Asia Center in Paris. “Beating your opponent without having faced him is the best driving,” said Sun Tzu once.
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