Tuesday, February 18, Riyadh. American and Russian flags float side by side. An unthinkable decor a few months ago. The head of American diplomacy Marco Rubio talks with his counterpart for 4:30 am. Then, Sergei Lavrov breaks the silence: “We were not content to listen to ourselves, we agreed,” he said. Spectacular reunions that energize the Western common front and the Isolation strategy of Russia.
Six days earlier, Donald Trump phoned Vladimir Putin and declared negotiations open to end the war in Ukraine, trampling Europe in passing, great absent from this “dialogue” found. But another actor finds himself on the sidelines, caught up in this sudden merger Moscow-Washington: China, which has grown since 2022 its “limitless friendship” with Russia against the same enemy, this “collective West” Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.
A Sino-American rapprochement at the expense of China
A great admirer of Richard Nixon (President of the United States from 1969 to 1974), Donald Trump-who maintained with him a long correspondence in the 1980s-may be inspired by the “diplomatic blow” of his distant predecessor: ” In 1972, Nixon had reconciled with Mao (after 20 years of diplomatic rupture, editor’s note) to annoy the Soviets. Trump wants to promote a rapprochement with the Russians to increase pressure on China and weaken it in the world geostrategic game, “explains the sinologist Jean-Pierre Cabestan, researcher at Asia Center Paris.
A Russian-American rapprochement would thus deprive Beijing of a significant geopolitical lever, at the very moment when it seeks to assert its role on the international scene. To avoid this scenario, the Empire of the environment activates all over the place. First, towards Washington. In recent weeks, Chinese officials have discreetly offered the administration of Donald Trump to organize a summit between Russian and American leaders, According to information from Wall Street Journal.
Pain lost … For the time being, reconciliation between Americans and Russians is done without China. Which multiplies the elevation at the old continent. “Europe must play an important role in the peace process,” said Chinese Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi on February 14, during a historic Munich conference, shaken by the corrosive discourse of the American vice-president JD VANCE, acting, in front of cameras around the world, the rupture of the transatlantic alliance.
“Beijing wants to take advantage of the division between the two parties. With Joe Biden, there was a transatlantic solidarity that bored her. Today she surfs the antipathy of Europeans with regard to Donald Trump,” analyzes Jean-Pierre Capstan. Even if it means reviewing his foreign policy. “China is today showing a certain moderation: the diplomacy of the warrior wolf (which is characterized by a rhetoric of confrontation, editor’s note) is a bit dusty. It is now trying to be on good terms with Europeans, D ‘Improve his relationship with Japan and maintain contact as stable as possible with the United States, “said the researcher. An imperative in view of the economic slowdown it is going through.
Chinese ambiguity: a mediation offer that divides
This hand stretched to Europe arouses as much curiosity as of distrust. “We do not see what assets China has for the resolution of the conflict: it does not have troops in the region, no territorial issues and theoretically has no alliance”, points François Godement, advisor for the ‘Asia at the Montaigne Institute.
Its proximity to Russia also arouses many suspicions. In December 2024, the German Minister of Foreign Affairs thus criticized China for her propensity to “oppose our fundamental European interests with her economic and armament assistance to Russia”. “The supply, by China, of components and double -use equipment to the Russian defense industry is one of the many factors that have tipped the balance in favor of Moscow on the battlefield in Ukraine, while accelerating the reconstruction of the Russian military force after its extraordinarily costly invasion, “said former Haine Avril’s former Haine intelligence in May last May.
According to a survey by the AP agency, 90 % of Russian microelectronic components used to make missiles, tanks and planes, came, in 2023, from China. The latter has also become one of the main customers of Russian hydrocarbons, a real life buoy for Russia in the face of Western sanctions. Some European leaders believe, however, that this position could give Beijing. “They implicitly count on the fact that he plays a moderating role vis-à-vis Russia, if only by economic and technological control,” explains François Godement.
Nothing indicates, for the moment, that Xi Jinping would begin this “limitless friendship” with Vladimir Putin. “History and reality show us that China and Russia are good neighbors who will not go away, and real friends who have crossed good and bad moments together, support each other and develop together”, Xi Jinping said on February 24 – cited by Chinese media -, the three -year anniversary of the Russian invasion. A good hearing …
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