“Taiwan stole our semiconductor industry. We had Intel and all these companies, and they took them. We want the return of this industry to the United States.” This comment by Donald Trump would go almost unnoticed in the midst of all his shattering statements on Ukraine. But the semiconductor industry, which represented $ 627 billion in 2024, According to the World Semiconductor Trade Statisticis not a sector that can easily lose sight of. Especially since the American president announced his desire to impose severe customs of customs on semiconductors, in retaliation for this “theft”.
However, if the island is well today the world’s leading producer of these chips, essential for the proper functioning of all electronic devices, it is not because it has taken force the American industry. “In reality, the United States no longer wanted to have factories on its soil,” said Pierre Cambou, analyst of the semiconductor market at Yole Group.
The “fabless” strategy of the 80s
In the 1980s, large American groups specializing in fleas faced a major problem: production is increasingly difficult, due to the permanent narrowing of semiconductors. The necessary materials are extremely sensitive, manipulations, complexes. The number of defective products increases and the manufacturing costs fly away.
The first foundries, factories specializing in the manufacture of fleas, appear in this context. While Intel and its competitors made their own fleas so far, these foundries allow you to subcontract the making. By focusing in improving production processes and techniques, the foundries improve the rate of yield of their factories, and decrease losses. The vast majority of companies then chose to outsource the production of semiconductors, and to focus on their design.
“These choices were made in the 1990s, in a period of relative economic peace and flourishing globalization”, recalls Estelle Prin, consultant in economic and founding intelligence of the European Observatory of Semiconductors. “Being fabless [NDLR : ne pas avoir ses propres usines de fabrication et de sous-traiter à des fonderies] was valued. American companies have chosen to outsource the production of semiconductors in Asia “, where the workforce was inexpensive.
In the end, “the Taiwanese semiconductor industry is a construction of the United States, but also of the Japanese, which have sent many of their companies and their factories to Taiwan since the 1990s. Costs, “adds Pierre Cambou.
Taiwan owes a large part of its strategic position in the semiconductor industry to an actor: TSMC, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the very first foundry in the world to produce only for external customers. Since its creation, in 1987, the company has taken an incomparable technological advance.
“They have been investing billions of dollars for thirty years in the manufacture of semiconductors. Whether it is Europe, China or the United States, everyone is late at least 10 years compared to To them “, underlines Olivier Demoly, director of development at Cortus, a company specializing in the design of fleas. TSMC’s strength lies in particular in having versatile factories, which make it possible to produce thousands of different products within very short deadlines, and with few losses. In 2023, the company thus manufactured 11,000 models of different fleas for 500 customers. “I don’t see anyone in the world that can compete with TSMC,” says Olivier Demoly.
Semiconductors, a geopolitical issue
Donald Trump’s statement is above all political: the American president wants to repatriate the very lucrative business of the foundries in the United States. His predecessor at the White House, Joe Biden, had already seized the importance of semiconductors. Signed in 2022, the Chip Act put on the table $ 280 billion in investment in order to promote the installation of foundries in the United States and subsidize industrialists. The initiative had borne fruit: TSMC had announced in the process the construction of its first factory outside Taiwan, in Arizona.
However, there are some black dots on the board. “In Arizona, half of the workers of the TSMC factory are Taiwanese, because the Americans are unable to hold on. It takes a level of technicality that they do not have,” says Philippe Notton, co -founder of Sipearl, who Facts fleas for supercomputers.
In addition, this foundry whose large -scale production would start in 2025 will not make the most advanced fleas: the finest will continue to be made in Taiwan. The American factory will only produce 4NM fleas at its beginnings, while the latest generation semiconductors are currently in 2nm. Production in 3nm should only start in Arizona in 2028, and that in 2NM by the end of the decade. An eternity in the world of fleas, where the number of transistors in the processors doubles every two years.
An unbearable situation for Donald Trump, who partly explains his recent statements. “He put pressure on TSMC and Taiwan to obtain more technological transfers and have access to 2nm fleas more quickly”, analyzes Estelle Prin.
The question of technological transfer is all the more important since Taiwan is at the center of many geopolitical issues. The island, independent de facto since 1949, is claimed by China as part of its territory. And Xi Jinping recently said that reunification was “inevitable”.
Faced with Chinese threats, one of Taiwan’s weapons is precisely its semiconductor industry. For the moment, the United States has every interest in protecting the island, which provides 90 % of the most advanced chips, rather than seeing production capacity pass into the hands of China. Taiwan at first glance has little reason to accept a transfer of know-how. “What I read between the lines is that the United States wants a technological transmission in exchange for its protection against China,” summarizes Olivier Demoly.
A technological transfer would still represent a very important risk for the island. “The industry is already controlled by the United States, because the design of the fleas is made by American companies,” says Philippe Notton. “With factories, they would have the whole value chain. But they will never have it, because Taiwan’s life insurance is factories, and Taiwanese know it.”
A sign that Taiwan is not ready to separate from his flagship, Lai Ching-Te, the president, responded to Donald Trump’s statements by promising new investments in the United States. Taiwanese industrial groups should also announce investments in AI in Texas in the coming months. What may appease Donald Trump. At least for a time.
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