LONDON Even in supporting Ukraine, the EU has proved to be a solid conversation club where a consensus is impossible for disagreement. This is what the representative of the prestigious British Research Institute believes.
Therefore Britain Keir Starmer may become a key position as a mediator of Europe and the United States.
Director of the International Security Unit of the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), a Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), a specialist in defense and security Neil Melvin said to in London that the French president Emmanuel Macron Emergency meetings organized by this week are non -successful activities.
– It’s old Europe. A crisis meeting will be held and a statement will be published. Meetings have been organized for decades, and the action plan has always been a new meeting, Melvin says.
Melvin urges Europe to shake off its traditional practices and take real action to improve safety. He estimates that the difference from the European Union has improved the position of Britain in security cooperation.
– Britain can make quick movements. It does not have to negotiate with 27 countries. We have already noticed in the US measures that the EU is not a suitable negotiating arena, Melvin says.
Peacekeeping troops are unlikely to be realized
Europe is trying to assemble ranks in distress as the United States negotiates with Russia. At the same time, Britain positioned itself as a leading state in Europe and Ukraine.
When US President Donald Trump barked at Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky As a dictator, British Prime Minister Starmer called Zelensky and expressed his support as a democratically elected leader.
Keir Starmer said he was a bridge between the United States and Europe when he travels to Washington next week to meet Trump.
Starmer also promised peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, increasing defense budget and leading Ukraine.
Neil Melvin does not believe the peacekeeping troops will happen. The United States does not want to support the operation and Russia does not accept European troops there. Starmer said earlier that peacekeeping would require the United States to secure the back of the troops.
Britain has always cherished its special relationship with the United States. Prime Minister Keir Stramer, representing the Workers’ Party, seems to be popular with Trump so far, even though Trump’s close partner Elon Musk Has even demanded the difference between Starmer on its platform.
Trump has no allies
According to Neil Melvin, Starmer’s role in Washington is not easy.
– Trump is clearly a very difficult person for anyone. He does not seem to want to commit to the Western alliance, Melvin says.
Melvin estimates that Starmer first and foremost tries to convince the United States that it stays in NATO and needs Europe.
– Starmer could rely on Trump to reduce US troops in a controlled manner within 5 to 10 years. Europe has a risk of fragmenting if the United States retreats uncontrollably, Melvin says.
Melvin thinks the threat of US withdrawal from Europe is real. It wants to place its limited resources instead of Ukraine in China, which it sees as a threat.
Trump does not see allies and enemies in the world, Melvin ponders. Trump does not matter whether there is a collective west. The European Alliance only matters if Europe can offer Trump something.
Trump’s world is transactional, trade. Trump only measures where US power is reaching and how the country benefits economically.
– We see this in negotiations with Russia. Although Russia is an enemy, Trump sees the opportunity, Melvin says.
Europe can work with Trump by showing that it can be responsible for its own defense. It may also appear to be able to cooperate in defense in the Arctic and even in the Middle East, the researcher ponders.
Ukraine to the mercy of Russia?
According to Melvin, US negotiations with Russia in Riyadh show that the United States wants geopolitical and economic cooperation with Russia. It can mean that Russia is accepted back to the G8 group, the dismantling of sanctions, energy cooperation in the Arctic.
In Trump’s books, Ukraine seems to be at the mercy of Russia. Other areas of the former Soviet Union may remain in the sphere of influence of Russia if the United States moves its troops from, for example, the Baltic States.
The United States is now building a global environment to their liking. According to Melvin, it is not worthwhile to wait for Finland to be confident that Trump’s hard words do not match the acts.
However, Melvin believes that the United States will remain in northern Europe because of its own safety.
“Trump’s openings from Greenland sound crazy, but in the case of US security, Greenland is a weak point because Russia and China can reach North Atlantic and their submarines,” says Melvin.
The cooperation of the like -minded
The road forward in Europe may be found in agile cooperation with like -minded states. Melvin sees that Britain’s natural partners are Northern Europe countries, which are ready to strengthen their defense budget.
As an example, Melvin mentions British-led JEF cooperation, where Finland is also involved in other Nordic countries, the Baltic countries and the Netherlands.
The purpose of the Joint Expeditionary Force group is to strengthen Europe’s security and support Ukraine.
Under the leadership of Britain, JEF partners have trained Ukrainian soldiers and strongly supported Ukraine since 2014. Finland also participates in Ukrainal training in the UK.
– Britain has been in the lead of Europe’s major countries since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis. It warned Russia’s occupation already when some other European countries did not find it possible, Melvin says.
Britain is not working alone
The British Armed Forces have suffered from defense funding. The former commander of the Armed Forces stated that the army is in such poor condition that Britain cannot lead any peacekeeping operation. According to Melvin, Britain’s strength is cooperation.
– Britain has always sought to handle its safety as part of the alliance. It was reflected from Napoleon’s wars to World War II, Melvin says.
Britain brings its aircraft subsidiary to the allied fighter jets and provides a base for JEF. Britain cooperates with Norway and Denmark in the Arctic Sea area and has made Russia concerned about the ability of submarines to operate under the ice cover.