Frédéric Micheau, deputy director general of the Opinion Way polling institute, is used to monitoring the changes and upheavals of the electorate. He agreed to deliver to L’Express, hot, his analysis of the result of the French presidential election, which comfortably crowned Emmanuel Macron, this Sunday, April 24.
L’Express: What do you remember from the result of this second round of the presidential election?
Frederic Micheau: Abstention, first, reached an almost historic level. The presidential election is less and less spared from the abstentionist cycle that affects our country. The replay of the 2017 match generated some weariness among the electorate.
Emmanuel Macron’s victory, then. Admittedly, it is as much a vote of membership (52%) as of dam to Le Pen (48%), but it is an event which remains historic: he is the first president re-elected without cohabitation since General de Gaulle. And quite widely, since after Chirac, he achieves the best score of the Fifth Republic as far as an outgoing president is concerned.
And then there is Marine Le Pen’s score. She suffers a major defeat but progresses in an unprecedented way. The Republican front still exists, as shown by the fact that 54% of Mélenchon voters voted for Emmanuel Macron. But he is dull. Reports in favor of Marine Le Pen from Eric Zemmour voters are also very good (83%).
In which categories is Marine Le Pen increasing the most?
It increases in all categories substantially. It is in the majority in the popular categories (51%), among tenants (51%) and among households earning less than 2,000 euros in income per month. She made a breakthrough among women, since 45% of them voted for the candidate of the National Rally. It also wins the vote of the majority of 25-34 year olds.
Does it carry another age category?
No, Marine Le Pen brings together 45% of 35-50 year olds [NDLR : l’institut Elabe la donne toutefois en tête chez les 50-64 ans avec 51% contre 49% pour Emmanuel Macron], but conversely it is particularly low among those over 65, since more than two-thirds of them voted for Emmanuel Macron. How can this very specific attraction of 25-34 year olds be explained? We can say that it is the age during which we realize the reality of employment, the period during which we apply for a loan, during which we start a family. Marine Le Pen also multiplies her score by two among executives, even if two-thirds of CSP+ preferred Emmanuel Macron.
In view of the score he achieves this evening, do you imagine Emmanuel Macron winning the legislative elections?
His victory is comfortable and it is the logic of the Fifth Republic. Now there are fifty days left to manage. It will be necessary to avoid the small unfortunate sentences. We know that newly appointed ministers have sometimes made costly blunders: remember Jean-Louis Borloo’s remarks in 2007 on social VAT, which tipped seats to the detriment of Nicolas Sarkozy’s majority.
When you look at the scores by socio-professional category, what is the profile of the ideal Prime Minister, who would best complement Emmanuel Macron’s strengths?
It’s hard to say. In 2017, Emmanuel Macron first chose to send a sign to the right, appointing Edouard Philippe. Then he opted for a technocrat, Jean Castex, a bit like Valéry Giscard d’Estaing in 1976 with Raymond Barre. Today, both profiles are on the table. He can choose a relative, Julien Denormandie, or a personality who speaks to the left. The choice of Elisabeth Borne, for example, would be symbolic: a woman would be back at Matignon, thirty years after Edith Cresson. When we observe the campaign between the two rounds, the promise of a Prime Minister in charge of ecological planning, we can say that the re-elected president would have a little more interest in appointing someone marked on the left. It remains to find the personality.