Will there be a majority in German Bundestag this Sunday? Nothing is less certain. Germany organizes anticipated legislative elections on February 23, after the fall, on November 6, of the coalition led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD, Social Democratic Party of Germany) which united the SPD to the Greens and Liberals FDP. These federal elections, which aim to renew the 630 seats of the Bundestag (736 before a reform in 2023), are particular: they are part of a context of economic crisis, political instability and strong polarization on the question of Immigration after several attacks related to foreign suspects and the support displayed of the Trump administration as well as Elon Musk on the far right.
The CDU/CSU in the lead in front of the AFD and the SPD
Less than a week from the ballot, the surveys compilations place the CDU/CSU group (Right Christian Democratic and Conservative) always in mind in front of the far-right AFD party, which signs a strong progression. The Greens, too, progress, and the SPD would be elbow in third position. Estimates to be taken with tweezers because, as the Reuters news agency points out, “analysts claim that polls can evolve quickly, because voters are less faithful to the parties than they were in the past.”
In detail, the CSU/CDU alliance has been in front, as in most elections for two years, with 30 % of the votes according to the latest poll published by the Forsa Institute on February 16, followed by AFD at 20 % . In this same survey, the SPD obtains 16 % of voting intentions, followed by the Greens with 13 % and Linke with 7 %. The FDP (Party of Libres Democrats, Liberals) is 5 %, and the BSW (left alliance), at 4 %. Equivalent estimates are advanced by the surveys of the German version of Business Insideras well as Spiegelupdated on February 18. The FDP and the BSW may therefore not reach the 5 % threshold necessary to enter Parliament.
Strong progression of the extreme right, the greens maintain themselves and the SPD is retreating
The SPD, the CDU/CSU, the Greens and the AFD all present candidates for the post of Chancellor.
As a reminder, in the previous legislative elections of 2021, AFD had obtained 10.4 % of the votes, less than the 12.6 % recorded to those of 2017, before increasing again to 15.9 % in the European elections of 2024. Achieving 20 % of the vote would therefore be its strongest increase.
Conversely, the SPD social democrats had collected 25.7 % of the vote in 2021, while the FDP had reached 11.5 %. According to current estimates, these two parties would therefore fall sharply during the vote on Sunday.
The Greens, they would obtain a stable score, while the radical left party Die Linke would progress by 2 points compared to 2021.
Recall that the polls are only estimates and that the end result can change. Since November, according to Business Insider which carried out the average of the main polls (dated February 18), the AFD won 3.1 percentage points of voting intentions, followed very closely by Die Linke (+ 2.9 points) and the Greens ( + 2.7). The SPD has lost 1 point, the CDU/CSU 2.3 points and the BSW 3.3 points.
The SPD has so far had 207 seats in the Bundestag, the CDU/CSU of 196, the Greens of 117, the FDP of 90 seats, the AFD of 76, Die Linke of 28 and the BSW of 10 seats, with 9 members not registered in a party. In Germany, the Bundestag shares the legislative power with the Bundesrat, the federal representation of each German Land.