Is Finland receiving security guarantees for the duration of a possible NATO application?
This issue is of interest to many now, as Finland may be applying for membership of the Defense League already in the spring. According to various estimates, the application would take 4 to 12 months to be approved by each member state.
According to experts interviewed by , there will be no binding military security guarantees. Instead, NATO countries are prepared to support in many other ways if Russia begins to put real pressure on Finland.
We gathered five key perspectives on the security guarantees and assistance that the big European countries could give to Finland.
1. Security guarantees are an unrealistic idea
Finland would receive political support for the application period. Military security guarantees are reserved for NATO member countries.
Prime minister Sanna Marinin (sd.) according to Finland has discussed (switching to another service) security guarantees with the major members of the Defense Alliance, namely the United States, Britain, France and Germany. He has not opened the concrete content of the discussions.
According to experts, the whole discussion about security guarantees for the application period is a Finnish specialty, as NATO does not have the supranational power to commit to the exact support of any applicant country.
– Before any guarantees can be talked about, membership should have national approvals in all NATO countries. If NATO services were provided to the applicant, things would take precedence, the Director of the European Center for Hybrid Competence Teija Tiilikainen says in a telephone interview.
Article 5 NATO’s assistance in crisis situations is not precisely defined, even for NATO members. The aid would be decided according to the seriousness of the situation.
Nor has NATO ever guaranteed, or even discussed, the security of any of the candidate countries during the application period.
– The whole idea is new and foreign. It is certainly not in anyone’s interest to promise anything that cannot be considered, says the research director Hanna Ojanen In a telephone interview from the University of Tampere.
Political support is a different matter, and at least that is what Finnish politicians have sought from foreign powers. NATO and its member states can say that they stand by the candidate country.
For example, the Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg at the beginning of april, security for Finland was already in place during the application period if Russia threatened Finland.
2. Finland is firmly in the West camp and would not be left without help
Finland could get more help than Ukraine. The EU Treaty also obliges.
With the exception of NATO membership, Finland is completely attached to the West.
Finland is a member of the EU’s mutual assistance and a partner of NATO. NATO compatibility with the Defense Forces has been built since the 1990s, and Finland also has bilateral and multilateral agreements on defense co-operation. Finland is also an active member of the UN.
This has been a determined activity for Finland.
“Finland has built an infinitely good network on security and defense policy over the past ten years,” says a senior researcher at the Wilfried Mertens EU Research Center in Brussels. Niklas Nováky in a telephone interview.
According to experts, the “winter war trauma”, ie the fear of being left alone in a crisis situation, can be forgotten.
– Finland can certainly rely on the support of other countries, Ojanen says.
Nováky thinks the same. According to him, the war in Ukraine has only reinforced the idea.
– When European countries are helping the non-EU and non-NATO countries so strongly and militarily, support for Finland would very likely be even stronger, Nováky says.
As an EU Member State, Article 42.7 of the Treaty on Mutual Assistance in the Treaties already provides security:
If a Member State is the object of an armed attack on its territory, the other Member States shall be obliged to provide it with all the means at their disposal.
– The article is legally binding and obliges to help, Tiilikainen says.
However, the means are at the discretion of each member state. The EU has no competence in this matter.
France is the only Member State to have activated the article. It asked for and received support after the 2015 terrorist attacks. EU countries, including Finland, increased their forces in crisis management operations to free French troops from domestic missions.
The size of the crisis was smaller, but the article worked.
3. Good relations with Britain, France and Germany will help
It is in the interests of the big member states that Finland is not left alone. Britain in particular is investing militarily in Northern Europe.
In the crisis, Finland’s eyes would be on the large member states of NATO and the EU.
– In a crisis situation, the most important partners, ie Germany, France and Great Britain, would certainly come with support, Novaky estimates.
These countries and the United States have close relations with Finland, and Finland has supported their international operations. The big countries also want to make sure that Russia does not increase its influence in Northern Europe.
The most active is Britain, which has increased its military presence in the north in recent years, says professor of military science at Loughborough University Caroline Kennedy-Pipe in a video call.
Britain is dependent on energy produced by Norway and therefore considers the security of NATO’s northern edge to be of the utmost importance.
Thus, the British Air Force and Navy are constantly patrolling the North Seas. Britain is leading an additional NATO force in Estonia and, together with Finland and eight other northern countries, has set up a rapid reaction force, the JEF.
In addition to Britain, France and Germany also have close relations with Finland. Its own chapter is the United States, whose capabilities to move troops and material are enormous compared to other NATO countries.
Part of the demonstration of military power is joint military exercises. Britain is also actively involved in them.
“Increasing British training in the Nordic countries has been quite impressive,” says Kennedy-Pipe.
4. Joint exercises show alliance and facilitate help
In addition to intensive training, Finland has enacted laws that make it possible to get help when needed.
Immediately after the May Day, Finland will organize the Arrow 22 main military exercise of the Army, which will include armored troops from Britain, Latvia and Estonia, as well as a US department.
The timing and forces of Arrow 22 have been known for months, but now it coincidentally coincides with a NATO reflection. The exercise signals to Russia that Finland is cooperating closely with the West.
Finland has been moving closer to NATO through frequent military exercises since the 1990s.
This year, the Defense Forces have plans for as many as 62 international exercises. Just a few weeks ago, as many as 30,000 soldiers in the Cold Response exercise in Norway practiced winter warfare in Norway.
– The exercises are also a way to show which reference group Finland belongs to, Ojanen says.
The exercises have been justified by the development of Finland’s defense capabilities. In the NATO sense, it is also a question of other countries’ understanding of defending Finland developing.
Compared to Ukraine, for example, Finland is much more willing than before to receive troops from other countries for help if the need arises.
In 2014, Finland and NATO signed a so-called host country agreement. It defines the principles according to which Finland provides maintenance and logistics support to troops operating in its country. In 2017, Finland enacted a law clarifying the granting and receipt of international aid.
This has lowered the threshold for getting help in a crisis.
– The agreement with NATO does not only cover the peacetime, but covers all situations, says a special expert from the Ministry of Defense Mika Varvikko in a telephone interview and continue:
– It is in our interest that the arrangements are comprehensive and that preparations have been made to enable the troops to come here to perform their duties as well as possible.
5. NATO has never expanded in the midst of a crisis, and security guarantees have not been tested
Uncertainty cannot be completely eliminated because the situation is new.
The ongoing war in Ukraine makes Finland’s possible NATO application period unpredictable.
NATO has not expanded before in the midst of an acute crisis and no one knows how strongly Russia will really react.
– But it is good to remember that Russia has warned in all rounds of NATO enlargement. Russia threatened with consequences if the Baltic countries joined, but nothing happened, Tiilikainen says.
Uncertainty will not completely disappear, even in a situation where Finland is already a member of NATO. Article 5 of the Defense League obliges members to defend themselves together, but in practice this has not yet been tested.
The defense article has been activated only once, in connection with the 9/11 attacks. At the time, a terrorist organization was facing.
– After the terrorist attack, the other member states stated that they support the United States in how it decides to respond to the attacks, Ojanen says.
Thus, for example, countries supported U.S. air and naval defense after the attacks. The practical significance remained low.
Now the situation is different, because the potential opponent is the great power of Russia.
– The Defense League, NATO, has not really defended anyone yet. But of course there is readiness, Ojanen says.