(Finance) – le hypothesis of new commercial duties imposed by the European Union and the United States on raw materials from China and other non -European countries are becoming more and more concrete. If confirmed, these measures they could trigger an unprecedented crisis For Italian small and medium -sized enterprises, already put to the test by geopolitical instability and inflation.
An investigation conducted by I-AER (Institute of Applied Economic Research) on a sample of 591 SMEs in strategic sectors highlighted a worrying figure: 74% of Italian companies depend critically on the import of raw materials from China and other Asian markets. The introduction of customs duties in Europe and the United States could make the production activity of many companies unsustainable, with a significant impact on the national economy.
The manufacturing sector is among the most vulnerabili, with an increase in the costs of raw materials of 7% in the last year. This determined a contraction of industrial production of 3.3% in the first nine months of 2024 compared to the same period of 2023. According to the forecasts, 67% of manufacturing companies could further reduce production already in the first quarter of 2025compromising the competitiveness of the sector.
Also the Fashion and textile sectoralways one of the pillars of the Italian economy, is facing growing difficulties. China, the main low -cost fabric supplier, has seen its production costs increase, determining a decline in Italian production: -15% for skin, -9% for clothing and -6% for textiles in the first nine months of 2024. The sector exports fell by 4.5%, while the turnover recorded a 9%contraction. If the duties on Chinese imports were to exceed 25%, 58% of the companies in the sector plan to increase sales prices, with the risk of losing competitiveness on international markets.
The agri -food sector showed a certain resistance, with an increase in exports of 9% in the first ten months of 2024, driven by a +18% in the United States, for a total value of 7.8 billion euros. However, The increase in costs related to packaging and fertilizers, combined with possible duties on imports, could compromise the operating margins of 63% of companies in the sector.
The automotive industry is among the sectors most affected by new commercial policies. There car production decreased by 27.5% compared to 2019reporting the sector to much lower production levels. The European Union, in October 2024, introduced duties on Chinese electric cars, with rates from 17% per byd to 35% for the Saic group. This measure, aimed at contrasting the unfair competition of Chinese companies, is however affecting the costs of European companies, in particular the Italian ones of the car components.
Fabio Papa, professor of economics and founder of I-Aer, He warns: “to impose duties without a complementary plan to support the local industry risks further damage Italian companies. In an increasingly competitive global market, The strategy should include greater incentives for productioninvestments in research and development to reduce dependence on China and improve competitiveness “.
According to data collected by I-Aer, The new duties could reduce the GDP generated by Italian SMEs by 12% by the end of 2025 And cause a 15% increase in corporate failures. In addition, 48% of exporting companies are afraid of losing competitiveness on international markets due to the increase in production costs.
The Italian regions with manufacturing vocation will undergo the most serious consequences. There Lombardy, with its strong dependence on Asian supplies in the mechanical and electronic sectors, Veneto and Tuscany, with the districts of fashion and leather goods, and Piedmont, the heart of the automotive industry, could be severely affected by the increase in costs of production.
The European Union receives 56% of critical raw materials from China, fundamental for industry and energy transition. A deficiency could compromise 47% of the wind capacity and 66% of the production of electric vehicles scheduled for 2030. For Italy, which depends for 32% of its GDP on these raw materials, the repercussions would be devastating.
In the United States, the recent declarations of Donald Trump They let a return to aggressive protectionist policies. The former president announced new duties against China, Mexico and Canada, claiming that “Europeans treat us very badly and if they do not correct commercial imbalances they will have to pay the duties”.
The United States record a Commercial deficit of 350 billion dollars with the European Unionwith Italy among countries with the largest surplus (+42 billion dollars). If the American administration should introduce punitive duties, the Italian SMEs – the heart of the national economy – would risk serious repercussions.
Fabio Papa He underlines the need for a forward -looking strategy: “To impose duties in a context of strong economic interdependence is a short -sighted move. Italian SME must diversify the sources of supply and focus on new markets to mitigate the impact of global commercial tensions. In addition, Italy should promote bilateral agreements and tax incentives to protect our entrepreneurial fabric. “
To counter the negative effects of the duties, I-AER offers concrete measures as tax relief for the most exposed SMEs, funds for the diversification of suppliers and incentives for innovation, With the aim of promoting the replacement of raw materials imported with local alternatives.
“We cannot allow this crisis to become the point of no return for Italian SMEs. The economy of our country depends on them. We must act now, with a decision and strategic vision, before it is too late “, concludes Pope.