Peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are getting closer and closer. This week, US President Donald Trump announced that he had a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He stated that they agreed to start calling immediately.
Ukraine has in turn demanded to sit at the negotiating table. President Volodymyr Zelenskyj has emphasized that the country will not accept an agreement that is made over Ukraine’s head.
Both the United States and Russia have since said that Ukraine will be included in the peace discussions.
Russia’s red line
Russian scholar Malcolm Dixelius is convinced that the negotiations will take place. But he notes that the parties have diametrically different priorities.
Russia’s red line is that Ukraine should not become a member of NATO, according to Malcolm Dixelius. In addition, the Kremlin will probably want to expand its control over Ukrainian territory by completely taking over the four counties of Chenler, Zaporizjzja, Donetsk and Luhansk.
Ukraine’s most important requirements, on the other hand, are security guarantees from the West, believes Malcolm Dixelius.
– That’s about what the Ukrainians might get out of a deal, he says.
He estimates that an EU connection will be second on Ukraine’s priority list. Kiev also wants, among other things, to receive war damages for destroyed infrastructure, civilian goals that have been met and cultural monuments.
– But to what extent Russia is willing to even enter into such discussions, we do not know. It is quite unlikely that they would like to do it.
Earlier this week, US Defense Minister Pete Hegseth excluded that Ukraine would become a member of NATO. He also noted that it is “unrealistic” to return to the 2014 borders, before Russia occupied Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
Increasing war fatigue
According to Malcolm Dixelius, he thus played two Ukrainian negotiating cards – before the peace talks even started. Ukraine still has some ace to bring forward: the country is commodity -rich and resource -rich, is a great food exporter and has a strong and combat experienced army.
– They definitely have an international status that is important, says Malcolm Dixelius.
But he believes that Ukraine will be forced to renounce its demands in future peace talks. Although the countries are far apart, however, there is one thing that indicates that they will reach an agreement.
– The strongest driving force for both parties is that they are damn tired of the war. Both sides’ civil society is under stress, the Ukrainian more than Russian. They are under economic stress and a growing stress due to the drone war.
Thus, there is a willingness to compromise. The difference is that the Kremlin considers the development as a success, according to Malcolm Dixelius.
– In Ukraine, it feels more like a threatening loss, he says.
However, he fears that it will be delayed before all questions are released.
– You start with ceasefire and some kind of security guarantees from both sides and then continued peace negotiations that we do not know so much about.