One in Washington. The other in Moscow. Almost 8,000 kilometers separate them. However, this Wednesday, February 12, everything seemed to bring them together. For an hour and a half, the American president and his Russian counterpart were maintained by phone to end the war in Ukraine. 90 minutes during which the whole world retained its breath. What words Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have they exchanged? What agreements have the two leaders concluded? Shortly after the telephone interview, the American president made response elements, saying that they had agreed to initiate “immediately” negotiations. Furthermore, Donald Trump said in front of journalists in the White House: “He will come here, I will go there, and we will probably see ourselves in Saudi Arabia the first time.”
But at the Kremlin, caution remains in order. On Thursday, Dmitri Peskov, spokesperson for the Russian presidency, tempered the American heat, specifying that “no decision” had been taken immediately about the date of the meeting of the two heads of state. “It will take time to prepare such a meeting,” he said in an interview with the Russian channel Pervy Kanal. But whether it is in “a few weeks”, or “several months”, the meeting should indeed take place in Saudi Arabia. A choice far from trivial.
The precious role of mediator
It would not be the first time that Saudi Arabia would have become the scene of negotiations. Already on August 5 and 6, 2023, the Saudi port of Djeddah organized talks on the war in Ukraine. A choice which, at the time, had made react, as the Saudi kingdom had never made this conflict a diplomatic priority. On the contrary. “Each actor, whether in the Middle East or elsewhere, plays his cards according to his own national interests”, recalls Didier Leroy, researcher at the Royal Superior Institute of Defense of Belgium (IRSD). “Saudi Arabia, like many states in the region, has not, at the base, felt concerned by the war in Ukraine which represented for it a war between whites, between Christians”, he continues .
Especially since the country of the Middle East has good relations with Russia, its ally in the organization of oil exporting countries (OPEC +), with which it ranks second and third of the largest oil producers respectively in the world (behind the United States). But also with Washington, who, during the presidency of Joe Biden, provided a fervent support for Ukraine. Saudi Arabia was therefore, until the inauguration of Donald Trump, faced with a “balancingist exercise”, explains Didier Leroy. “Now that Donald Trump hands Vladimir Putin, Saudi Arabia is no longer faced with this dilemma. “
From now on, the Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salmane (MBS) openly assumes his alliance with Moscow by agreeing to welcome Vladimir Putin. But occupying the role of mediator is obviously not without ulterior motives, as confirmed by the researcher of the IRSD: “In the Middle East, this role has become a kind of additional braid that a state actor can boast of owning. [un plan lancé par MBS pour assurer la transition du pays vers un nouveau modèle de développement économique, NDLR]”Friday, February 14, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement in a statement and rejoice at the idea of welcoming a meeting between the American and Russian presidents.
A first symbolic … and lucrative journey
But Saudi Arabia will not be the only one to whom this future meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will enjoy. Unlock the communication channel with Russia, to loom as the new chef who keeps his conflict resolution promises, to continue to bloom the business of his real estate empire in the region: the American president has everything to win. It is not innocently that Donald Trump had chosen Saudi Arabia for his first trip abroad as president in 2017.
Questioned by journalists on January 20, the day of his inauguration, he said that he intended to repeat this promise during this new mandate. “Traditionally, it is Great Britain,” he replied. But I did it in Saudi Arabia the last time because they agreed to make purchases of 450 billion of our products “, a- He said, before adding that he could again choose this destination “if Saudi Arabia wants to make other purchases of 450 or 500 billion”. Like many comments from the American president, these figures are questionable. According to the American news agency Associated Pressthese purchases would in reality have been $ 14.5 billion. This time, MBS promised to invest $ 600 billion in the United States. What flatter the Ego of the real estate magnate.
Since Didier Leroy reminds us: “Donald Trump prevails people who have a good portfolio, who have development projects and who drain contracts with absolutely colossal sums in their wake. Saudi Arabia is in the lead, even before United Arab Emirates or Qatar. “
“Donald Trump will surf this debt”
But the country of the Middle East could well play with fire by getting closer to the one, who, in an anger of anger can reduce diplomatic relations. “In 2018, MBS was held responsible for the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate of Ankara. He was able to rehabilitate, become frequentable in the eyes of the planet thanks to Donald Trump, who saved his skin” , underlines the researcher of the IRSD. “He now has this feeling of debt. And Trump is obviously someone who will surf this debt to press Saudi Arabia until his last dollar,” he continues.
For Vladimir Putin, there is no question of a debt. On the contrary. Didier Leroy sums up the situation to “a kind of win-win-win” in which each leader takes advantage of this meeting, including the Russian president for whom this future interview with Donald Trump would mean the end of his sidelining by The United States.
These negotiations in Saudi Arabia should therefore be played without Ukraine, to the dismay of Europe. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, on the other hand, announced this Friday that he would soon go to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, adding to journalists on the sidelines of the Munich Conference, that it would see neither The Russians, nor the Americans. For the moment, the European Union can therefore “only note that each actor in the Middle East is ready to eat as many racks as possible. Here in Brussels, everyone is aware that Saudi Arabia and the others Gulf petromonarchies show what Ghassan Salamé [ministre de la Culture au Liban et ancien envoyé spécial de l’ONU, NDLR] had called diplomatic polygamy “, notes Didier Leroy.” We are at a time when everyone tests the borders of this polygamy. But that will eventually have its limits. “