The concern grows in Moscow, which observes its links with the former Soviet nations weaken under pressure from Western sanctions linked to the invasion of Ukraine. A government which was leaked, reported by the British economic daily THE Financial Timesreveals that senior Russian officials are concerned with the effects of economic pressure imposed by Europe and the United States on its relations with its allies, including its former Soviet sphere. The authors of the report also fear that the sanctions prevent it from strengthening its links with the Global South.
This internal presentation, unveiled during a strategic session led by Prime Minister Mikhail Michoustine in April 2024 and consulted by the media, offers a rare overview of the way in which war in Ukraine has harmed relations between Russia and some of his closest allies.
The allies of Russia take advantage of the sanctions
Particularly because, according to the report, the States of Central Asia are forced to respect the sanctions thanks to the “stick and carrot” approach, which consists in offering them access to global markets, transport corridors and to the supply chains that bypass Moscow. The latter took the opportunity to require additional commissions from Moscow to compensate for the risks linked to the violation of sanctions.
The Soviet allies of Russia also took advantage of the sanctions, to the chagrin of Russia: they allowed them not only to chase Russian companies from their territories, but also to regain control of imports and exports flows By relocating their productions formerly installed in Russia, reports the Financial Times.
Russian officials admit it nevertheless in the document: it will be necessary to play in the long term to maintain the countries of Central Asia in their orbit. Because the countries of Central Asia, according to the report, are already looking to “integrate without Russia” in groups such as the organization of Turkish States, or by promoting English as a second language instead of Russian and adopting Western educational standards, while sending their elites to train in the West.
A “macro-region” to settle on the world scene
The ambition of Moscow to remedy this, according to the report: to place Russia at the center of an Eurasian commercial block intended to compete with the spheres of economic influence of the United States, the European Union and China. A “macro-region” as a strategic project, which, according to Moscow, would survive any negotiation of the West on the future of Ukraine, in order to secure its commercial role and its influence on the world scene.
Even more: this new block would connect Russia from Vladimir Putin to the Global South, by opening access to raw materials to both parties, and by developing financial and transport links. All by uniting the two blocks under a vision of the common world, “where we write the rules of the new world and where we have our own sanctions policy,” said the report.