Carl-Oskar Bohlin’s statement that there may be war in Sweden became probably the most well-known statement in Swedish political debate last year.
The statement was criticized for being too alarmist and children called worried about Bris. Among those who are familiar with issues related to international relationships were also warned that the drastic formulations could be perceived as panicked, not least in the Kremlin.
But Carl-Oskar Bohlin maintains in the interview in SVT’s 30 minutes that he had justification for his sharp wording. The purpose was, he believes, to create awareness of the serious security situation in broad social groups. The Swedes simply had to be shaken to understand that now it is serious.
Reduced war risk?
But has the risk of war decreased since the statement, Sweden is now a member of NATO?
The minister didn’t really want to answer that. Instead, he emphasized that the world situation continued to deteriorate, that the full -scale war in Ukraine continues and Russia has proven to be prepared to take great political and military risks to reach their goals. All this negatively affects Sweden’s security, was the message.
At the same time, according to most analysts, NATO membership means that Sweden is safer today than before the NATO membership. The risk of an armed attack directly aimed at Sweden has thus probably decreased. It is about NATO’s deterrent effect, a deterrent that Sweden is now covered by and is part of.
An attack on NATO
An attack on Sweden would today be an attack on NATO as a whole. Few believe that Russia is prepared to take that risk.
However, there are recurring reports of hybrid attacks, such as the suspected sabotage against underwater cables in the Baltic Sea, but also impact operations and cyber attacks. At this year’s National Conference in Sälen, the prime minister expressed it as Sweden being not at war, but that no peace prevails.
However, the risk of an armed attack directly aimed at Sweden is considered small, although it cannot be excluded.