Despite the use of two 49.3 to have the 2025 budget adopted, the future of François Bayrou in Matignon does not seem in danger. The PS assured that it would not vote for the motion of censorship of LFI. The RN has not decided, but its votes are insufficient to reverse the steam.
Essential
- François Bayrou sparked his first 49.3 to have the bill for the 2025 budget adopted, that of the State and that of Social Security, in the National Assembly, on Monday, February 3.
- The elected officials of LFI therefore deposited not one, but two motions of censorship to try to overthrow François Bayrou’s government in response to the uses of 49.3. The censorship which will be voted on Wednesday, February 5 will have the support of the rebellious, environmentalists and communists, but not of the socialists.
- The PS claims to oppose the budget of the Bayrou government, but refuses to vote for censorship to allow France to have a budget, even bad, and avoid postponing the deadline again. To prove its opposition to the government, the PS has planned to file a spontaneous censorship motion after the budget vote.
- Only the position of the RN is still unknown, but the party of extreme intends to keep its decision secret until Wednesday. If several elected officials suggest that the budget is censurable, Jordan Bardella seems to bend in favor of non-censorship. Who of Marine Le Pen?
- Unless surprised, François Bayrou should resist this new censure motion since the only way to overthrow it is to bring together the votes of elected officials from the NFP, the RN and its Ciottist allies and at least 23 socialist elected officials.
Latest updates
10:56 – The RN does not file a censorship motion
The RN does not intend to file a censorship motion after the use of the 49.3 by François Bayrou on the vote of the 2025 budget declared the deputy Jean-Philippe Tanguy at the conference of presidents learned Bfmtv. If he does not deposit a motion, the party can still vote that of LFI, but people so that it does it.
10:47 – Divisions at RN, but don’t worry at Bayrou
If Jordan Bardella seems to oppose the idea of censorship the Bayrou government on the budget, other elected officials are of another opinion such as number 2 of the RN parliamentary group, Jean-Philippe Tanguy. The deputy estimated on Monday evening on LCI that “this budget would deserve censorship”. The elected official has supported this idea for several days and he justifies it with the maintenance of article 4 on the pricing of electricity which risks having energy bills increase from 2026 according to him. But if the discussions are still underway at the RN, they do not seem to prune to worry François Bayrou. And for good reason: even if the 124 elected RN and its 16 ciotist allies vote censorship, they cannot overthrow the government without the support of part of the PS elected officials.
10:35 – Bardella’s opinion on Bayrou’s censorship
The RN is the last political force not to have decided the question of François Bayrou’s censorship after adopting it from the 2025 budget by 49.3. But the far -right party intends to maintain the suspense to the end as indicated by its president Jordan Bardella on Europe 1 : “We will decide [mercredi] morning “. The fact remains that Marine Le Pen’s right arm has revealed his opinion between the lines and seems to be opposed to the idea of overthrowing the government, at least on the question of the budget.” If, we are completely honest this morning, the government cannot fall in all cases, since the Socialist Party will not participate in the vote of censorship, “he noted before adding:” I think that in the period in which we are , the French would not take advantage of a new form of instability which could have heavy consequences on the economy. “
02/03/25 – 23:52 – “We cannot hold it up until 2027”, deplores Jean -François Copé
End of the live – for the former minister and mayor LR of Meaux, despite the decision of the Socialist party not to vote the motion of censorship, the situation is today untenable. “We continue to organize survival, to live […] But we cannot hold like that until 2027, “said BFMTV Jean-François Copé on the set of BFMTV. For him, only one solution: an early presidential election.
02/03/25 – 23:25 – The PS is already threatening to file a censorship motion
“We are not going to vote for censorship this Wednesday on the budget, because a budget for France is needed,” assured at the end of the afternoon since the National Assembly, the socialist deputy Arthur Delaporte, facing the press . Before warning the Bayrou government: “But we will deposit, at the end, a motion of censorship, because we oppose this government more broadly, what it represents, what it has said Last week on the ‘migratory submersion’, and more broadly on all the challenges of the rule of law, social, economic law, the duty of vigilance … “
Cames on censorship
The motion of censorship must be voted by the absolute majority of the deputies present at the time of the vote, that is to say 289 votes if all the elected officials sit. The votes of the rebellious, environmentalists and communists bring the number of votes in favor of censorship to 126. If we add the 124 votes of the RN and the 16 votes of its Ciottist allies, which are not assured, the supports Censorship go to 266 votes. Still not enough. But it would be enough that 23 of 66 socialist elected officials vote the motion to overthrow François Bayrou and his government. The future of the executive could therefore be played in a handful of votes. This Monday at midday, the PS spoke in favor of non-censure, it remains to be seen whether all the socialist deputies will follow this instruction or if some will still vote censorship.
Another possible case: the government renounces the support of the socialists, who would join their votes to those of the NFP and bring the number of support to a censorship in 192, and tried to ensure the votes of the RN and the UDR elected officials. Without the 140 votes of the far right, no censorship motion can succeed. A detail that has not escaped Lepénist deputies as an elected official did Politico : “If there is no agreement with the PS, the spotlights will shine again on us!” He would not have escaped François Bayrou either according to a former macronist minister who considers to 20 minutes that the Prime Minister “now considers that the dynamics of censorship are more in the far right than to left”. However, by turning to the RN, François Bayrou risks committing “the same error as Michel Barnier” censored despite concessions to the far right.