On Monday, January 27, the sky is still cleared. Nothing seems to hinder the conclusion of a non-censure agreement between the government and the socialists around the 2025 budget. Armed peace is in the interest of all. Seated in a Parisian cafe, a framework of the ex-presidential majority displays an optimism tinged with prudence. “Elements can hit the benevolence that seems to be taking shape between the PS and us. A rebate that would make too much rebate for example …” prophetic. Finally, almost. The Minister of the Interior is for nothing in socialist anger. By theorizing the existence of a “feeling of migratory submersion”, François Bayrou himself woke up the desires of censorship of the rose formation. The budget is the first threat to the executive: in La Tribune on Sundaythe Prime Minister announces that he will resort to 49.3 on Monday and said his “hope” to see the finance bill finally adopted. But one train can hide another.
The theme of immigration is double -edged in this fragmented assembly. The questioning is throbbing. Should the government take vigorously to protect itself from the risk of censorship? Or does the subject embrace it to the simultaneous assaults of the left and the national rally? The question suffers from an obvious ideological bias.
Double -edged subject
Upon arrival in Beauvau, Bruno Retailleau looks without surprise for the first option. The Vendéen hopes that his speech and his legislative projects will have the effect of anesthetize the national rally. “It is life insurance against the RN, then judges a loved one. No government survives if it does not lean on the right.” The thesis is not lacking in arguments. According to opinion investigations, the French are eager for migratory firmness. This “national majority” – which Bruno Retailleau erects as a source of political legitimacy – would see with a bad eye the censorship of a vigorous executive. The analysis shatters on December 4. The extreme right drops the thumb, joining its voices to those of the left to have the Barnier government fall. Immigration was overshadowed by frontist speech, for the benefit of alerts against an increase in taxes or a screw on pensions.
That day, François Hollande Censored Michel Barnier. In the aftermath of the appointment of François Bayrou, the former President of the Republic maps threats. “If Bayrou, like Barnier, is looking for an agreement with the RN on an immigration law, he will put the socialists in the obligation to censor while knowing that this position would not necessarily bring the government.” Immigration, mined land. The left is wary of Bruno Retailleau, deemed complacent with the theses of the RN. The formation of the extreme right depicts him as “Minister of Speech”, with questionable efficiency. In September, Marine Le Pen erected in “red line” the absence of “migratory start”. “We ask you […] To give your agenda, from the first quarter of 2025, a restrictive immigration bill, taking up at least the censored provisions in January by the Constitutional Council, “she launched to Michel Barnier after her declaration of general policy (DPG).
“A great law is likely to cause censorship”
These dissatisfaction can be coagulated against the executive. Proof by state medical aid (AME). The drop of 111 million euros in the credits allocated to the system, approved this Friday by the joint joint committee (CMP), arouses contradictory reactions. “Total humiliation of the LRs on the budget and immigration,” reacted the deputy RN Jean-Philippe Tanguy on X “.” Macronie and the support of the government cut in the soul! Is it the extreme right that governs? Censorship is essential, “retorted the elected representative Aurélien Le Coq, member of the CMP.
Then the executive storms prudence. Forgotten, the great immigration law initially desired by Bruno Retailleau. François Bayrou spoke of simple “parliamentary initiatives” during his DPG. The Prime Minister prefers law proposals for identified objects. Less risky. “Having a great text is likely to cause censorship, notes a minister. Smaller laws on specific subjects can be just as effective and less dangerous.” Thus, Bruno Retailleau is not in a hurry to transcribe in our law the European pact on migration and asylum, an obligation by June 2026. Here again, the pincers are watching. The socialist MEPs had voted against this text, just like Jordan Bardella. In Beauvau, we philosopher: would it be the first time that France has taken liberties with European rules? Survival is well worth a little indelicacy.
François Bayrou will take shade? The Prime Minister is not known for his doctrine on immigration. “I cannot give his precise thought on the subject,” smiles a minister. “It is … François Bayrou”, adds another, in allusion to his centrism. The kind to prove his ministers Bruno Retailleau and Eric Lombard, with divergent lines. Before his DPG, the Minister of the Interior slipped to the Head of Government: “I am waiting for you to express yourself. I can’t settle for silences.” The choice of sound level requires great subtlety.
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