Provided you have an international diverse portfolio, equity investors have recorded two years of robust performance. What markets will a growth relay offer in the coming months? In 2024, the American titles pulled the scholarships upwards, but this progression was monopolized by a handful of technological values, nicknamed “the magnificent 7” (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla). The latter have progressed so much that they now weigh for more than a third of the S&P 500, the index however composed of the 500 largest American capitalizations.
“Currently, the stake is to find the balance between the forces present and the unfavorable factors, analyzes Olivier Dubs, senior managing at JPMorgan Private Bank. On the one hand, we have solid global growth, especially in the United States , the initiation of a cycle of drop in interest rates, and overall healthy companies. ‘Bond universe and geopolitical uncertainties. “
A catch -up of out -of -tech sectors
Many managers attack the year in continuity of the end of 2024, by promoting American actions. They benefit from a promising economic environment: a pro-business “Donald Trump” policy, dynamic household consumption and high margins. In addition, the boom in artificial intelligence is part of a long -term carrier trend, which should gain momentum in many industries and essentially benefit American players.
“We believe that there will be a catch -up of the other sectors compared to that of technology in terms of growth in joint -stock profits, which invites better sectoral diversification of portfolios, indicates Olivier Dubs. From a good distribution between cyclical and defensive sectors, and not neglect the yield, via real assets and obligations, in order to build a resilient portfolio. “
The return to grace of Europe
Despite the many advantages of the American market, uncertainties remain, because the policy of the new president could also have negative effects in the medium term, with a rebound in inflation and a surge in long -term interest rates. From this point of view, European actions offer a welcome alternative. They have a major asset: a discount of around 25 % compared to their counterparts located across the Atlantic, even though the companies of the Old Continent carry out a large part of their activity internationally.
“This discount is at a historic level and all sectors are concerned, notes Caroline Gauthier, co -responsible for actions at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management. We think that the low point has been reached or that it is about to be . A more accommodating than anticipated monetary policy, the end of the conflict in Ukraine or the establishment of an ambitious recovery plan in Germany are likely to bring investors to better feelings in the euro zone and to train a rebound lessons.
Obligations still in the race
Bond markets also offer good prospects, especially on the debt side issued by companies. In euros, this category of investment reported between 4.7 % and 14.4 % last year, depending on the quality of the issuer and the debt instrument. The bonds, listed, provide regular remuneration – portage – and their value can appreciate. This phenomenon occurs when interest rates drop or the risk premium offered by companies, that is to say the supplement of remuneration compared to the sovereign rate, is reduced.
“Given the current level of risk premiums, the additional drop potential is limited, but the portage remains attractive,” said Lazard Frères Gestion teams. Currently, good quality bonds report around 3.3 % and those of companies High yield – of less quality because it is more indebted – approach 6 %.