The maps of the geopolitical game in South Asia were rebatted. And New Delhi, regional power, must now navigate a hostile environment. The spectacular and sudden degradation of relations between India and Bangladesh, hitherto close to allies, is the most spectacular illustration. The fall of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, hunted by a mass student movement on August 5, 2024, changed the situation between the two neighbors.
Forced to flee, the “Asian Iron Lady” found refuge in New Delhi, where she has comfortably staying in the beautiful districts of the Indian capital. Enough to irritate the Bangladais interim government, led by the Nobel Peace Prize Muhammad Yunus, which now demands its extradition. At 76, the former leader was prosecuted by a Bangladesh court for crime against humanity in the context of the bloody repression of demonstrations having precipitated his departure. She is also accused of having played a role in the disappearance of hundreds of people during her 15 years at the head of the country.
“Extension of connivance capitalism”
But the discomfort between Delhi and Dacca is deeper. “A large part of the Bangladais seems to estimate that Indian policy since 2009 has deprived them of their right to freely choose their leaders and that an unequal relationship was forged with Hasina”, writes in a blog post, Ali Riaz, political scientist. India has always gone flawless support to the Sheikh Hasina regime, which has become more and more authoritarian over the years. New Delhi, like other Western powers, has looked at the multiple human rights violations but also on the systematic repression of the opposition and on the accusations of flagrant electoral fraud, allowing the head of the government of government keep up in power. In exchange, India has obtained numerous concessions from the latter. The Gautam Adani magnate, close to Narendra Modi, won a contract to provide electricity to the country for twenty-five years at prices higher than those on the market.
“Under Modi, New Delhi adopted this approach with most of his little neighbors, with sometimes unfortunate consequences,” judges Superhage Singh, lecturer in Yale, in the journal Foreign Policy. “The preferential treatment granted by governments such as that of Hasina to companies favored by Modi – an extension of Indian connivance capitalism – has further increased in the intentions of New Delhi,” said this expert. The Sri-Lankan president on the left, freshly elected in September, also promised that two projects of the Gautam Adani group in Sri Lanka would be examined by Parliament.
India has accumulated difficulties for several months in countries traditionally considered as belonging to its “sphere of influence”. In the space of just over a year, the Maldives and Nepal then saw the advent of hostile leaders in New Delhi. The new Nepalese Prime Minister, who came to power in July, wants to be closer to China. In the Maldives, President Mohamed Muizzu, was elected in September 2023 after an “India Out” campaign (“India outside”). He forced New Delhi to repatriate his 90 soldiers present in the archipelago. The latter have been replaced by civilian personnel. In March, Malé signed a “military assistance” agreement with Beijing and other agreements were also made in the fields of infrastructure, energy, maritime and agricultural sectors.
New Delhi fears a rapprochement of Dacca with Beijing
Do these developments act a failure of the policy “Neighborhood First” (the vicinity first) wanted by the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi? For former Diplomat Sushazing Singh, this approach has “failed” due to “border disputes and bilateral disagreements, late execution of development projects by India and the growing influence of China in the region”. Others point out that the neighbors of India, including Bangladesh, have no choice but to establish economic relations with it.
As proof, the Maldives signed, in October, a major currency exchange agreement with India for an amount of $ 750 million in order to overcome the shortage of foreign currency of the island. From His election, Mohamed Muizu, the president judged pro-Pékin, softened his anti-Indian rhetoric, affirming in particular that he would not upset the regional balance by replacing the Indian soldiers with Chinese soldiers. “In the long term, what everyone wants is fair and fair relationships. India is their biggest neighbor and the one they know best, if they play the game, they will be able to take advantage of it” , believes for his part Manjeev Puri Singh, former Indian diplomat, who was notably in office in Kathmandu.
The interim government in Bangladesh has continued to repeat that he wanted to maintain good relations with India, while betting on other partnerships. “In addition to turning to the European Union and the United States, Dacca will also cultivate relations in its own region. Development partners who spend a lot, such as China and Japan, could benefit,” predicts Thomas Kean Crisis Group. New Delhi is just afraid that the interim government is more favorable to China, while the two Asian giants are engaged in a war of geopolitical and commercial influence in several countries in the region. In addition, Dacca has started a rapprochement with Pakistan, a sworn enemy of India.
India is therefore trying to navigate the tumultuous geopolitical waters of its region with the main concern of the growing influence of China. The southern Asian giant will also have to deal with the new Trump administration, which, if it seems to share its concerns in Indo-Pacific linked to the actions of Beijing, could put New Delhi under tension in terms of illegal or commercial immigration . The same day of his inauguration, on January 20, Donald Trump warned that if the countries of the BRICS (of which India is part) planned to reduce the use of the dollar in international exchanges, then he would impose customs duties for them at least 100 %. India, which has become the third country providing illegal migrants in the United States – is estimated that there would be some 725,000 on American soil – assured that it would facilitate the return of illegal migrants. Some 18,000 Indians would be threatened with expulsion.