Astronomers in Chile have discovered that an asteroid, which is estimated to be 40 to 100 meters wide, can collide with the soil in 2032.
The risk of it being beaten is estimated to be around one percent at the moment, according to European Space Agency ESA.
It was a month ago that the asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered by Chilean astronomers. According to the European Space Agency ESA, the risk is estimated that it will be down on earth in 2032 to be around one percent. It could have done great damage to the site the asteroid had landed, says space expert Anders Eriksson.
The asteroid is estimated to be between 40 and 100 meters in diameter and can cause real damage several miles from where it strikes.
“There is only a percent risk that it will reach the earth, but it is still a pretty big lump,” says Anders Eriksson, a researcher for the Institute for Space Physics.
He compares the potential collision with the so-called Tunguska strike in Siberia in 1908, when a potent forest dedication occurred in an uninhabited area. The current asteroid is in the same size scale if it is in the smaller range, that is, around 50 meters.
– This is the largest that has appeared in many years, says Anders Eriksson.
Can beat down in the tropics
The asteroid’s journey is difficult to determine, but at present it looks like the impact will occur in the tropics, which is the area between the latitudes north and south of the equator.
At the same time, Anders Eriksson emphasizes that the probability of a collision is low and that a possible impact on the ocean greatly reduces the risk of serious consequences.
He believes that you can make a better assessment by 2028, when it will approach the earth again. Probably the risk will then go down to zero percent, when you can make more accurate calculations.
So can it be stopped
A preventive measure that will be discussed by ESA next week is to crash away the asteroid.
– It may delay or premature so that it does not hit in any populated area, but it can also result in it going into several pieces, says Anders Eriksson.
In this way, one could adjust the asteroid’s course in advance. At the same time, Anders Eriksson recalls that collisions with such large objects occur every few thousand years – so that the likelihood that an asteroid will ever hit the earth is 100 percent.