LONDON On Wednesday, a small group of protesters gathered off the British Parliament to wake EU tickets. The speakers echoed a song that talked about Brexit as a tragedy, but it sometimes disappeared under the sound of passing cars.
Requirements for Britain’s return to the European Union appear to be fragile, although support for EU membership has increased in the UK since the EU divorce.
Five years ago, the British selected the EU in the referendum with a small majority. Now 55 percent of the British hold YouGov-minded inquiry According to the EU as a mistake.
The graphics below show the development of opinions:
As many as three out of four under the age of 25 think that Britain’s EU difference was a mistake.
Even EU opponents admit that Brexit has failed. Only one in ten citizens consider Brexit a success.
During their nearly 50-year EU membership, the British often disrupted the Union during their EU membership. Now YouGov According to the study, almost half of the British believes that trade relations with the EU should be the number one priority of the government.
Only one in five wants to have close trade relationships to the US, as the graphics below show:
The British government promises but does not approach
The government, led by the Workers’ Party last year, has promised to warm up the relationship with the EU. However, it has made it clear that there is no return to the EU joint market or the Customs Association. The government is opposed to the EU proposals for the free movement of youth, which would facilitate, among other things, student exchange.
In practice, the government has done nothing about convergence, says Professor of International Politics Simon Usherwood The Open University University.
One reason is that Brexit is still a politically sensitive topic. The Labor Party is aware of the popularity of the popularity of the EU-EU, so the decision-makers are preferably silent by the decision makers.
“It is really unlikely that the Labor Party’s government will promote the matter during this or next parliament,” says Usherwood.
According to Usherwood, the British people are also indifferent to the EU. Therefore, he considers opinion polls to be superficial.
– The big factor is that Europe is still seen as a distant political debate in Britain. British politicians have never wanted to bring Europe into a political system, unlike, for example, in Finland, usherwood ponders.
Former Prime Minister for Brexit on behalf of Brexit Boris Johnson It was successful in their campaign precisely because the people did not know enough about the EU, says a report by Ukice. It was easy for voters to believe in a populist image of the EU.
Johnson and his troops claimed, among other things, that Britain spends approximately EUR 400 million per week on EU fees. He promised that after Brexit, the money would be directed to improve dilapidated public health care.
In the economy, the worst may not be visible until years later
According to researchers, Brexit did not become a dreaded disaster for Britain. The economy did not collapse. However, it wound up.
– Clearly Brexit had a financial price. We lost growth, but the economy is still working, Simon Usherwood estimates.
UKICE CHAIRMANDER, Professor John Curtice Describe the effect of Brexit on the economy as a slow -blowing blow. The economy leaks like a car’s inner tire from a small hole: slowly but surely.
“The worst can only appear in years later,” Curtice estimates.
The volume of foreign trade from Britain to EU countries fell by more than nine percent of Brexit’s start to the end of 2024. A significant reason is customs bureaucracy.
The export of services, on the other hand, has been strengthened and has already accounted for more than half of the British trade with the EU.
The British Budget Responsibility Agency estimates that economic growth is 4-5 % lower than if Britain had remained in the EU.
Small and medium -sized enterprises who have taken the goods have been the most suffering. 20,000 small businesses stopped exporting to EU countries because it was no longer profitable due to bureaucracy.
UKICE researcher, professor Sarah Hall Afraid the political effects in the areas where production suffers.
“It can lead to the increase in popularity of far -right parties,” he says.
Immigration from outside the EU rose to record records
The promises of Brexit politicians on the improvement of NHS in public health care were not met. According to UKICE, funding for the health care system has increased significantly, but that is not enough to repair the structures that have been weathered over the years.
According to researchers, immigration was Brexit’s biggest success, but differently than Brexit’s opponents expected.
Many voted in favor of the EU difference because they were in favor of restricting immigration. Immigration of EU citizens was drastically reduced, but immigration from non-EU countries rose to record numbers. Britain is now more multicultural.
Sarah Hall says, for example, that Nigerian nurses, who have been hired in public health care, have located a shortage of care.
Britain and the EU still have enough disputes. The EU has brought not only the right of Britain to fish for sand anker, but also to violate the legal protection of EU citizens living in the country.
The position of Northern Ireland between EU and British law is also still flammable.
Collaboration can be expected especially for defense. Britain strongly supports Ukraine and has concluded cooperation agreements with European states.
In Britain, the debate on the effects of Brexit is determined by Professor Simon Usherwood, uncertainty.
– We are still wondering what the core of the whole thing was. If it is not clear to us, it’s hard to know whether Brexit was a success or failure, says Usherwood.