In February 2024, when Emmanuel Macron spoke of the possibility of sending troops to the ground in Ukraine, many of his European counterparts had insurgent against the adventurism of the French leader. Almost a year later, this scenario is no longer incongruous. He is at the heart of discussions between Europeans on the role they will have to play in Ukraine in the future.
A new pavement in the pond was launched on January 21 by Volodymyr Zelensky, when he spoke for the first time the number of European soldiers required, according to him, to guarantee the security of his country in the event of a truce with Russia. “200,000 is a minimum. Otherwise, it is nothing,” said the Ukrainian president, on the sidelines of the Davos forum.
This outing owes nothing to chance. The calendar suddenly accelerated with the takeover of Donald Trump, who, during his campaign, had proud to be able to end the conflict in 24 hours. Since then, speculation is going well on the plan that the new tenant of the White House will offer, eager to meet Vladimir Putin “as soon as possible” to negotiate the stop of the fighting. In the background: the question of whether, as his campaign teams had suggested, he plans to set up a “demilitarized zone” in the country, whose surveillance would be entrusted to Europeans.
Limited human resources
This dizzying scenario is now urgently studied by the Chancellery of the Old Continent. Do they only have the means? “On paper, the figure of 200,000 soldiers does not seem insane if you want to be able to secure a front of 1,200 kilometers, gauge General Nicolas Richoux, former commander of the 7th armored brigade. But it is absolutely impossible to Find. no European army is cut to mobilize so many soldiers over time. ” To date, the French armies have just over 200,000 men, bringing together all land, marine and air forces.
Their projection capacity in operation is however much lower. In the Sahel, the French troops involved in Operation Barkhane had thus reached, as much as possible, 5,000 men. “When you have 5,000 soldiers in operation, there are in parallel 5,000 who prepare to leave and 5,000 who come back from mission. So you actually mobilize 15,000 men, resumes General Richoux. To this are added The many commitments of our armies: in the forces of sovereignty [chargées de protéger le territoire national, NDLR]bases abroad such as Abu Dhabi or Djibouti, Finul, or even sentinel operation, who require thousands of men per year. “
Difficult, therefore, to draw massively from workforce already widely mobilized on other theaters. “At the moment, it is difficult to see how France could deploy more than 10,000 men, while continuing its other commitments elsewhere,” confirms Yohann Michel, manager of studies at the Institute of Strategy Studies and Defense ( Iesd) of Lyon-3. Or a small fraction of the forces mobilized by Moscow and kyiv. In mid-January, Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that his army now had around 880,000 men spread over the entire territory, against 600,000 Russians grouped in specific areas. “Russian troops are concentrated in several regions, so in some, they have a quantitative advantage,” said the Ukrainian president.
50,000 men, an achievable goal
The challenge of supporting Europeans through the sending of soldiers is nonetheless crucial to kyiv. If the Ukrainian presidency excludes for the moment any reduction in the format of its army – largely made up of men having been mobilized within the population -, such a scenario could end up imposing itself in the event of a long -term break. “If there is a peace, one of the issues for Ukraine will be to survive, notes Yohann Michel. This ultimately implies a form of demobilization to be able to regain a normal economic life.”
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kyiv will not, however, lower without solid security guarantees provided by his allies against any new Russian invasion. And for good reason: in Ukraine, all still remember the memorandum of Budapest, signed barely 30 years ago, by which Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom had to guarantee the integrity of its borders, in exchange of the withdrawal of its nuclear weapons dating from the Soviet era. With, since then, the insistent feeling that they would have dissuaded Vladimir Putin to attack, if the country had still been endowed.
But without American support – categorically rejected by the Trump administration – how many soldiers would Europeans be able to align on the spot? “A target of 50,000 men would be ambitious but achievable,” said Yohann Michel. “This would make it possible to have occasional achievements with task forces capable of projecting themselves in the field in case of difficulty, adds General Richoux. Below this volume, the effects would remain limited.” What about the participation of Europeans in the defense of heaven with their combat planes? “A division with air means is close to what is necessary to have a reaction force in the face of what Russia could produce,” slips a military source.
Russian reaction risk
Several countries have already opened the door to such a deployment. Beyond France, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said in mid-January during a visit to kyiv that his country would play a “full-fledged role” in any potential force for peacekeeping. Two days earlier, the Lithuanian Minister for Foreign Affairs, Kęstatis Budrys, had also sketched a green light. “I can hardly see this operation led without an alignment of the Weimar triangle [France, Allemagne et Pologne, NDLR]point Yohann Michel. It should also be able to count on Italy which constitutes great European force. “
The perimeter of such a mission would nevertheless remain complex. A peacekeeping operation carried out within the framework of a United Nations mandate – like Western intervention in Kosovo after the 1999 ceasefire – would be subject to more than uncertain agreement Russia permanent member of the Security Council. “Such a mission would de facto have every chance of being entrusted to a multinational force not include Europeans because of the Russian veto right, underlines Marie Dumoulin, former diplomat and director of the European program extended to the European Council for Foreign Relations (ECFR).
Will kyiv allies dare to resolve it? In the absence of agreement with Moscow, the risk would be for the forces dispatched on the spot to find itself, too, targeted. “Even in the event of a ceasefire, there is a non-zero probability that Russia seeks to test the determination of the countries involved in an operation in Ukraine, confirms the former diplomat. Which will make the credibility of this force, It is his ability to be ready to react in the event of an attack. ” A potentially heavy decision for Europeans.
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