Leader of the Middle East, relationship with Donald Trump, Islamist danger-L’Express

At the dawn of his reign, in 2017, the Saudi crown prince made a crazy promise, provoking only an upturn of shoulders amused in the chancelleries: “The Middle East will be Europe of the 21st century.” Today, his ambitions no longer make anyone laugh. The prospect of an unprecedented period of peace Which opens in the region, after the ceasefire in Lebanon, Gaza and the fall of Bashar el-Assad, offers a gold opportunity to MBS to make its promise. Standardization of relations with Israel, creation of a Palestinian State, supervision of Iran, reconstruction of devastated countries … The site promises to be immense, but the young prince can now count on the return of another old outset, Donald Trump.

Episode 1 – MBS, the ambitious Saudi prince: Investigation of the man who can change the Middle East

Chapter III – Trump, a relationship in gold (and dollars)

In his crossing of the desert, MBS owes his survival to a man: Donald Trump. Nothing grandiloquent, but an absence of conviction that was worth tacit support. “As president of the United States, Trump had granted a certain level of protection to MBS behind the scenes during the Khashoggi affair, recalls Christopher Davidson, specialist in the Gulf at Durham University in the United Kingdom. This simple gesture had allowed the Crown prince not to be ousted from power despite his isolation and increasingly strong disputes. ” The Saudi has not forgotten it.

He also did not drop the republican billionaire after his loss of the White House in 2020, in particular through Yasir al-Rumayyan. His face remains unknown to the general public, however this 55 -year -old Saudi manages a fortune superior to those of Elon Musk, Bill Gates and Bernard Arnault combined. This businessman broods the $ 1,000 billion in the Saudi sovereign fund, one of the world’s largest financing platforms.

The weekend following the re-election of the New York magnate, Al-Rumayyan was by his side, with Elon Musk, in the forefront of a wrestling fight at Madison Square Garden. “He would regularly play the Trump Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey, which shows that MBS never considered the American president to be finished and that they maintained a great bond,” says a businessman French familiar with the behind the scenes of the kingdom.

Photographed with a cap “Make America Great Again” In the summer of 2022, Al-Rumayyan symbolized MBS’s successful bet with Trump. At the end of its mandate, Saudi Arabia invests $ 2 billion in the fund created by the son -in -law of the former president, Jared Kushner. “The two leaders appreciate each other, but they do not trust each other, tempers Christopher Davidson. The absence of Jared Kushner during this second mandate will also be important, since he was the main intermediary between Trump and MBS.”

After the American nomination, the Saudi prince is the first world leader to receive a call from the White House. In the process, Trump is questioned by a journalist on a possible visit to Saudi Arabia. “The first time, [les Saoudiens] had promised $ 450 billion in investments in the United States. If they promise so much or a little more, given inflation, I go back! “The next day, MBS announces its intention to invest $ 600 billion in US territory. Trump response:” He could round at 1,000 billion. “

A strange game of auctions that the New Yorker loves, but who has the gift of annoying the Saudis. In 2018, during a visit to Washington, MBS had been received in the Oval Office with a map of the United States highlighting the regions benefiting from the 12 billion arms sales to Saudi Arabia. “It is a trifle for you,” said Trump, causing deaf anger of the Saudi prince according to his entourage, humiliated to be taken for a milk cow by the American president. Their relationship could however change the face of the world.

Chapter IV – A continent to conquer

It is one of the most incredible chapters of MBS’s young career. In November 2017, he summoned Lebanese Prime Minister to Riyadh, Saad Hariri, whom he accused of being too close to Iran. Nothing unusual until then, except that the Lebanese finds himself arrested, abused and threatened by henchmen of the Saudi prince. Forced to resign, Hariri finds himself hostage for several days. Emmanuel Macron will ultimately unlock the situation by officially inviting Hariri to go to Paris.

Seven years later, Lebanon seems to have forgotten this kidnapping. The face of MBS covers whole buildings, on posters alongside the new President Joseph Aoun. Saudi Arabia has returned to Beirut and, according to the Elysée, Riyadh plans to finance and accompany the revival of the Lebanese army. Since 2021, the French president personally has been trying to convince MBS of the interest of getting involved in the country of Cedar, finally rid of the overwhelming tutelage of Hezbollah Pro-Iran. “Emmanuel Macron realizes that the Saudi Arabia of MBS is essential, sums up Bertrand Besancenot, former French ambassador to Riyadh. The crown prince intends to ensure that, in this multipolar world that emerges, the Saudi Arabia, the only Arabic country of the G20, is an important, autonomous actor who defends his own interests. An element of a regional arrangement. “

The rout of “the Iranian axis” in 2024, with the losses suffered by Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Assad dynasty in Syria, offers a historic opportunity to MBS to forge its place as a regional leader. The new masters of Damascus rushed to Riyadh in early January, and not with their Turkish allies, a sign of the Return of the Saudis in the region.

Involved in Lebanon, Syria and talks in Gaza, Saudi Arabia is also trying to appease tensions between Washington and Tehran, pleading for a new international Iranian nuclear agreement rather than strikes on existing installations. “The only objective that matters to MBS today is the success of his 2030 vision, maintains François-Aïssa Touazi. He is focused on these files and understood that it was essential to stabilize the region to attract foreign investments.”

The admirer of Alexander the Great does not intend to stop there. As a regional leader, it aims at the Grail of the Arab world: the creation of a Palestinian State. The only way to achieve it will be a peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, a country protecting the Holy Muslim places. In exchange, the Saudis are asking for security guarantees in the United States close to those of NATO level, but also “an irreversible path to a Palestinian state”.

A formula vague enough to achieve an agreement? “If MBS thinks that it is possible, then he will try to enter the history books thanks to the Palestinian question, judges Kristian Coates Ulrichsen. Donald Trump could also think that this agreement would open the way to the Nobel Prize Peace and do everything so that the deal is successful. A diplomat from the region, a connoisseur of Washington behind the scenes, is optimistic. “Trump will want this Saudi-Saudi-Arabia peace treaty to be perceived as its only personal accomplishment, and not as the result of a work started by the Biden administration. He will take several months to achieve it but we will have an agreement before the end of the year. “

Chapter V – The perils of a prince

From dinners to receptions, it is an anecdote that Saudi leaders like to share. At the end of the 1960s, Iran’s chah, Reza Pahlavi, wrote to King Fayçal of Saudi Arabia to warn him: he had to follow his example and urgently liberalize his kingdom, under penalty of being overturned by its dissatisfied people. King Fayçal replied: “Should I remind you that you are not the chah of France? Your population is 90 %Muslim, do not forget.” Ten years later, the revolution brought down Pahlavi to install an Islamic Republic. Saudi Arabia, it will have taken decades to liberalize itself, but catches up in record time. Does MBS go too fast and too far? He is the first to fear a destiny similar to that of Iran’s chah.

The crown prince expressed his fears to several members of the American Congress: in the event of standardization with Israel, he would become the target n ° 1 of the Islamists. In these conversations, MBS mentions Anouar el-Sadate, The Egyptian president who signed peace with the Hebrew state in 1979, murdered in Cairo two years later. Despite his omnipotence, Ben Salmane cannot ignore his 37 million citizens: in a survey carried out in November and December 2023, in the wake of October 7, 95 % of the Saudis said that Hamas had not killed any Israeli civilian during of these terrorist attacks.

For a long time, the kingdom remained discreet on the war in Gaza, preferring diplomacy behind the scenes to public attacks against Israel. Propalestinian activists that are too virulent on social networks or simply carrying a keffieh in the street are even arrested. “In Saudi Arabia, the regime perceives a threat to any form of political activism and this is the case today for the Pro-Palestinians,” points out Christopher Davidson. During a conference at La Chatham House in London last September, Prince Turki Al-Faisal, influenced in the Saudi royal family, was taken to task by public members. “How not to suffocate with your shame to see our brothers being massacred without doing anything?” thus indignant a Kuwaitian researcher, accusing the Saudi government of “having the dishonor brought to the whole Arab world” by remaining passive in front of Israel.

On November 11, MBS ended up letting go: in front of the Arab League, in Riyadh, he denounced the “genocide” in progress in the Gaza Strip. “The last thing MBS wants is to condemn and criticize Israel, assures Christopher Davidson. But for political reasons, he had no choice but to make these statements. This is what wished and expected all his people. “

Mohammed bin Salmane has transformed his kingdom in ten years but his society remains, in majority, very conservative and anchored in Wahhabi Islam. If the crown prince has made the most extreme religious preachers go back, he has not eradicated Salafism, a radical doctrine on which the kingdom was founded for decades. “MBS only put the Salafists in a cage,” said Saudi author Ali Shihabi. One day, Nicolas Machiavelli wrote: “There is nothing so difficult or so dangerous than to undertake to change the order of things.” There is no doubt that the Saudi prince, his reader, knows it better than anyone.