It was by a spectacular and somewhat grotesque staging that President Trump began his mandate on January 21. Surrounded by his euphoric supporters, he signed in fifteen minutes the 25 decrees supposed to embody the new American “golden age”. However, a question did not find its place among the initials carefully aligned on the presidential office: that of customs duties. In November, Donald Trump announced that he wanted to impose 25 % taxes on products from Mexico and Canada, up to 60 % on those from China, and more generally, from 10 to 20 % on global imports.
The European Union, “very bad for [l’économie américaine]”, According to him,” will not be able to avoid customs duties “. If the calendar remains vague, these measures would mark the end of a parenthesis long of forty years: that of unhindered trade promoted by the WTO since its creation . While our first supplier China has never really respected the rules of world trade- massively subsidizing its companies and thus distorting competition- is now the turn of our first customer and “friend”, the States- United, imposing protectionist barriers that destabilize the market.
A negotiation weapon
First, we see it with the migratory question in Mexico, Donald Trump loves to make his commercial threats a negotiation weapon on other subjects. European officials who think that by buying American weapons they will avoid a trade war are wrong. The temptation to buy pricing peace at all costs would be a heavy error in consequences.
The second mistake to avoid would be to remain crossed if the threats are carried out. Trump’s policy is likely to increase the market share of American companies on their soil creating economies of scale that will lower the average costs of these businesses and finance the American R&D which will be the source of an advantage tomorrow structural competitive. The EU has the means to set up intelligent customs barriers by diversifying its economic partners but also by accompanying the sectors which will be hardly affected by American measures like French agriculture or the German automobile . It is out of the question to let American companies take us market share by threatening our jobs, our social model and our profits that will finance our R&D tomorrow. The objective is to impact the American offer while minimizing the inflationist consequences for us. It’s sad, but unfortunately there are no other choices than to replicate …
In depth transform the European economy
Finally, the last error, and undoubtedly the most serious, would be not to take advantage of this new equation to deeply transform the European economy. The Draghi report must become our Bible. He draws up an unambiguous observation of our dropout against the United States and China and also makes daring recommendations that we should follow to the letter to prevent Europe from becoming the useful idiot of this new chapter of international trade . But, while we live this crucial moment when China and the United States remind us that the world is advancing without us and against us, Europe is terribly difficult to show that the camp of democracies can be effective and intelligent.
What this moment reveals is above all that we would not have so much to expect the commission if the original engine of Europe, the Franco-German couple had not been so paralyzed by the hesitant mandate of Olaf Scholz and the catastrophic dissolution of Emmanuel Macron who deprived Europe of his decision -making capacities in the worst time. If in Germany, we know that deliverance will come next February, with us, it is still waiting … More than ever, France must go better for Europe to go better.
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