Dmytro Kuleba, former Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister from 2020 to 2024, is the big international guest of RFI on Tuesday, January 28. Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House to the United States, there has been a question of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Vladimir Putin says he is ready to chat with President Trump. Volodymyr Zelensky reacted by warning against an exclusion from Ukraine from these talks.
RFI : Do you think there will soon be negotiations ?
Dmytro Kuleba : I don’t think that real negotiations will start soon. At least, if we imagine a table in which three or four, where I do not know how many leaders, sit together and find solutions. There is already an active exchange of messages on negotiations between Washington, Moscow and kyiv. In this sense, we can conclude that discussions on the way war must end have already started.
But these are not a question of negotiations in good and due form such as we usually imagine them. The problem is what to say that we are ready to discuss is one thing, but reaching an agreement is another. And if all the parties indicate that they are ready to discuss, we are still far from any agreement.
How do Ukrainians apprehend the Trump presidency ?
Regarding Trump, I think that Ukrainians have the same feelings as the rest of the world, except that the issues are much higher for us. Our feelings are mixed. On the one hand, we see it as an opportunity. On the other, we know that Donald Trump is a politician who can radically change position at any time. It is therefore really the art of diplomacy that will come into play, and who, hopefully, will keep Trump on the right track and will help him restore a just peace in Ukraine.
These discussions around possible talks intervene at a difficult time for Ukraine on the battlefield. The army has given way. Russian troops are at the gates of the Dnipropetrovsk region. From this point of view, Russia does not seem to have a reason to stop the war. Is it really willing to talk about peace or stopping fighting ?
No. At this point, Putin thinks he will win both on Ukraine and the West. He thinks that the West will vacillate and that he can seize all of Ukraine. It’s his dream. Putin will therefore be ready to negotiate and make concessions when he feels weak. And it depends on two subjects: the first is the situation on the battlefield and the second, it is the economic situation of the Russia. If he feels that he can hold and he has stability in these two areas, then he will continue to fight.
In three years of war, the West has repeatedly crossed the red lines of Russia by giving arms to Ukraine. But he also limited his military aid for fear of climbing conflict. Do you think that there is still a fear of climbing, or more generally a fear of Russia on the part of certain Western partners ?
Yes, this is the case. If there was no fear of climbing or fear of Russia, this war would have already ended. I would even say that this war would not have started if there had been no fear of Russia. Putin attacked only because he was sure that Europe and UNITED STATES were afraid of him, that they were not going to react, that they were not going to support Ukraine and that he would crush Ukraine quickly. No other concept has inflicted more damage to Ukraine than the concept of non-escalation.
The policy of non-escalation is a huge error in the West. He must learn from it. Non-escalation only works if, on the other hand, the opponent is sensitive and reacts to the gestures of non-escalation. For example, you say: “I’m not going to do this” and you stop your offensive. When the other party stops, non-skidding works.
But what happened in Ukraine is that the West said to Russia that we would not do that. And you should also slow down. But Putin did not slow down for a second. He never returned to the policy of non-escalation, while the West continued to follow this path, which led to heavy losses. And many people in Ukraine have only died because the non-escalation policy has been maintained by large capitals.
The Kremlin and the US administration seem to agree on a point : Ukraine should not join NATO, at least in the near future. Is there a discussion space on this subject in Ukraine ? What do you think of the proposal to suspend Ukraine membership in NATO to achieve peace ?
This means that Trump will concede to Putin the question of membership of Ukraine to NATO Like a price to pay to stop the war. The war will stop, but as long as Ukraine will not be part of a collective security mechanism such as NATO, a next war will break out in a few years. Putin fights against Ukraine’s membership in NATO, not because it represents a threat to Russia, but because he wants Ukraine to remain exposed and vulnerable to his assault, because he will never give up the idea of destroying Ukraine as a state. He is obsessed with this idea and that is his goal. NATO is therefore the only way to ensure that there will be no new war between Ukraine and Russia.
We are about to enter the fourth year of war. Voices rise to claim territorial concessions. What would be possible for Ukraine and the Ukrainian people ?
All those who claim from Ukraine that it makes territorial concessions, should first yield part of their land and show the example. Give part of your land or regions of your country to your neighbor, and you will then have the right to tell the Ukrainians: “I did it. Follow my example. If you haven’t done it yourself, shut up and follow the discussions.
This is how things should happen if we want to have a fair and equitable conversation. Because it is very easy to decide the fate of someone else, in terms of its territory, from NATO membership, or anything else. But put yourself in the place of someone else and you will arrive at conclusions and approaches to completely different negotiations.
Is there a risk that Ukraine will find himself in a situation where others decide his fate ?
It will not happen. It is an old cliché to think that Putin will sit with Trump or with someone else, that they will decide the fate of Ukraine, and that they will force Ukraine to face reality. Ukraine has been fighting against Russia for three years now, with all the difficulties, losses and tragedies that have occurred. We are a viable country that fights without foreign troops on the ground, and we have the right and the ability to make our voice heard. And it will be so.
You will teach Sciences Po Paris on diplomacy in wartime. What message will you send to the students ?
Learn from our experience and avoid wars. To avoid practicing war diplomacy, you have to learn by heart and understand it. And I will share this experience and this knowledge with students in hope that knowing war diplomacy, they will never have to apply it because their countries will never be at war.
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