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Since the end of March, people in Shanghai have been under strict confinement with few freedoms. With the “zero covid” strategy at all costs, the Chinese government hopes to limit the damage. Explanations with Dr Guillaume Zagury, epidemiologist back from Shanghai.
The toll is growing in Shanghai. 48 days from the start of the Omicron wave in China, the economic capital is experiencing an upsurge in new cases and deaths. After a month of strict confinement, the economic capital has recorded seven new deaths from Covid-19. Three had been announced by the town hall in a press release on Monday. In total, there are approximately 20,000 new cases of Omicron per day, or approximately 1 person in 1,000.
The “0 Covid” strategy against Omicron
No less than 25 million people are subject to more than severe confinement in the economic capital. With the “covid free” or “zero covid” strategy, the Chinese government makes its inhabitants live under strict confinement conditions: no exit authorized, not even to stock up on food and infected people are sent to treatment centers. isolation with random comfort and hygiene.
By applying this strategy, China leaves little room for contamination. Then the population does not develop herd immunity. ”You always have to put yourself with a prism in a Chinese vision of events : Omicron has overhauled one of the best health systems in the world (Hong Kong), with the death of 0.1% of the population in 6 weeks, by analogy to Mainland China, President Xi understood that there could be no half measures to “save” the 20% of Chinese seniors ( 280 Million!)”says Dr Guillaume Zagury, epidemiologist and doctor back from Shanghai. “In my opinion, they have been amazing so far but there are positives and negatives in every strategy.” The doctor also indicates that as in Hong Kong, the deaths in Shanghai concern the elderly and not fully vaccinated (90% of deaths occur in people over 70 and not fully vaccinated). A fact that could be explained by a lower vaccination coverage of this vulnerable population in China (not a priority initially in the vaccination strategy): “It is also complicated to get vaccinated in China, especially for people with reduced mobility, since it does not work like in France. You have to go to specialized centers which are often far away”explains the epidemiologist and creator of the site CovidMinute.com. About 40 million Chinese over the age of 60 would not be vaccinated.
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A political issue
According to Dr. Zagury, there are also “a political issue” in the management of this new wave. With the 20th Communist Party Congress scheduled for next October, the Chinese president hopes to present a positive assessment of these last years lived with the virus. “Ideally in addition to the two major successes obtained with the “success” of the Olympic Games, and the return of the Russian big brother with China, he wants to arrive saying that it is the only country in the world which has been almost covid free, and show how well the country has managed the health crisis unlike other Western countries ”says the doctor.
However, the management of the health crisis of the past month is not well received by the inhabitants. With many revolts in recent days as the restrictions were strict, the Chinese government was forced to ease certain restrictions from Wednesday April 20 with slightly more freedom of movement. “This Omicron wave could in the worst but nonetheless unlikely scenario, be the wave that will destabilize China. However, if China is destabilized, the whole world can be as well”, concludes the specialist.