(Finance) – 2025 promises to be a year of continuation of the economic cycle. After a 2024 in which expectations for a non-turbulent macroeconomic context and positive results on all the main financial markets were met, 2025 presents itself as the sixth year of the post-Covid economic cycle driven by a favorable mix of expectations for positive growth, stable inflation and falling rates. If confirmed, these expectations would mark a moderate, but healthy, reconvergence between the US and the Eurozone after the divergence of recent years. But there is no shortage of factors of uncertainty, the main topic of attention will be the decisions of the US administration in fiscal policy and trade policy. This is what emerges from the Global Outlook of Eurizon. Eurizon experts have outlined the macroeconomic scenario and the prospects for the traditional and alternative financial markets for the year that has just begun and the consequent investment strategies in portfolios.
“We have defined the 2025 outlook by trying to distill the information, through careful analysis and selection by our teams of experts. We have traced a route that allows us to navigate in 2025, during the year we will continue to monitor the evolution of the context to adjust the course – he highlighted Maria Luisa Gota, CEO and general director of Eurizon –. The outlook is positive for all the main financial markets, although elements of uncertainty remain which could cause phases of volatility. But we must not be frightened by episodes of volatility because if there is one certainty it is that if we stay out of the markets we will lose investment opportunities. “
Bonds
“The bond markets – we read in the report – remain interesting, thanks to a coupon flow higher than inflation, and offer protection to portfolios in the event of an unexpected macro slowdown. Spreads are already rather compressed for corporate bonds which however remain an interesting source of additional coupon yield compared to government bonds”.
Actions
“The valuations of the stock markets – underline the Eurizon experts – appear tight, especially in the USA, and political uncertainty can be a source of temporary volatility; however, the continuation of the economic cycle is an element of support. The issue is also for the stock markets divergence / convergence will be central. At a geographical level, a relative preference is confirmed for the USA where earnings growth is more stable and for the Eurozone where very attractive valuations add to an extremely limited positioning of global investors”.
Private markets
“For more sophisticated investors, the opportunity offered by private markets stands out as it allows them to increase the diversification and stability of returns in portfolios. Entering this market, rather than an alternative – we read in the report – is a complementarity that allows access unlisted companies that form the backbone of the real economy and offer a return premium for the illiquidity of assets. Eurizon Real Asset invests in all asset classes of private markets: from private equity, where mid cap companies are favored at this stage, to private debt, infrastructure and real estate”.