(Finance) – Il International Monetary Fund lowered the country’s economic growth forecastItaly this year to 0.7% and raised that for 2026 to 0.9%. The new forecasts are contained in a partial update of Word Economic Outlook. Compared to the data from October last year, growth for 2025 was reduced by 0.1 percentage points, while that for 2026 was raised by 0.2 percentage points.
“Our slight downward revisions for 2024 and 2025 on Italy’s growth fundamentally reflect the weaker outcome we have seen, as the spending momentum on the Pnrr. And the medium-term challenges also had an impact, with increases in geopolitical risks,” he explained Deniz Iganduring the press conference to present the update to the WEO.
The International Monetary Fund has revised its forecast slightly upwards global economic growth this year at 3.3%, the same rate expected for 2026. Compared to previous forecasts, the 2025 figure has been raised by 0.1 percentage points.
The IMF has raised its economic growth forecast States United this year by 0.5 percentage points leading to +2.7%. The growth expectation for 2026 was raised by 0.1 points to 2.1%. On the contrary, it revised its growth forecast downwards to 1%.area euro for 2025 and 1.4% for 2026, respectively 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points lower than the estimates three months ago. The data are affected by the heavy cut on the growth forecasts of Germany (0.5 points less than 2025 at 0.3%) e France.
Growth forecasts confirmed Japan (+1.1% this year and +0.8% next), while the estimate on Great Britain it was raised by one decimal point this year (+1.6%), and confirmed next year (+1.5%).
IMF also raised its economic growth forecasts China to 4.6% this year and 4.5% next (0.1 and 0.4 percentage points higher than three months ago, respectively). For theIndia confirmed the growth estimate of 6.5% both this year and next, the highest value among the major global economies. The growth forecast for the company has also been revised upwards by 0.1 percentage points Russia this year, at 1.4%, and confirmed that for 2026 at 1.2%. For the Brazil predicts a +2.2% for both years, in the first case the figure is confirmed in the second it has been reduced by 0.1 percentage points.
Expectedglobal average inflation to 4.2% this year and 3.5% next. In the editorial of the study, the Washington institution noted that the medium-term risks in the basic scenario are oriented downwards, while for the short term “the prospects are characterized by divergent risks. The already robust growth of the United States could strengthen United in the short term, while in other countries the risks are downwards amidst high political uncertainty.”
Any problems created in disinflationary process by political measures could interrupt the change of pace of policies monetarywith less than positive implications for the sustainability of public finances and financial stability. According to the IMF, managing these risks requires attention to the implications between inflation and real economic activity, the restoration of fiscal margins and the strengthening of growth prospects in the medium term through structural reforms, multilateral rules and cooperation.