A researcher who closely follows the evolution of demographic decline in this country has estimated that there will soon be only one child left among the population.
Population aging continues to progress. Older people represent an increasingly large share of the population. In France for example, according to INSEE, people aged at least 65 represented 20.5% of the population in 2020. This is particularly due to advances in medicine. However, another factor comes into play: the birth rate. In 2024, according to latest demographic report from INSEE663,000 births took place in France, or 2.2% less than the previous year. Thus, the population is aging and it is far from being the only country to face such a situation.
This is also the case in Japan, which has more than 124 million inhabitants. The country is facing a decline in marriages and an increase in the number of single people and therefore a decline in the birth rate. The cost of education would also come into play. It is estimated that the number of residents could fall to 80 million by 2100. In 2024, Japan recorded 350,074 births between January and June according to data from the Japan Bureau of Statistics. This is the lowest figure since 1969 over such a period, representing a drop of 5.7% compared to 2023.
According to the estimates by Hiroshi Yoshida, professor at the Research Center for Elderly Economy and Society at Tohoku University, it is even possible that at a certain point there will be only one child under the age of 14 left in the country’s population. Which means no more young children. To arrive at such an observation, the researcher developed a conceptual clock which tracks the demographic decline of Japan. It also indicates, every second, the decrease in the number of children.
Hiroshi Yoshida thus estimated that it would be on January 5, 2720, or in 695 years, that the number of children living in the country would fall to one, if the decline in the birth rate continues to progress at the current rate. This latest forecast came 100 years closer to that of 2023. Hiroshi Yoshida had already warned that by 2531, all Japanese would be called Sato, because of the demographic crisis and the legislation requiring married couples to take the same name.
“Japan could be the first country to disappear due to the demographic crisis. We must put in place working conditions adapted to all profiles, such as women and seniors, so that the Japanese can showcase their skills,” with the aim of overcoming the obstacles which sometimes prevent the Japanese from having children, said Hiroshi Yoshida, to the daily Yomiuri.