Coincidence? On January 10, economist Gilbert Cet, who chairs the Pension Orientation Council (COR), posted a three-page note online, signed by his hand. He details how this body, made up of parliamentarians, union officials and senior civil servants, establishes its annual projections on the evolution of pensions. Four days later, in his general policy declaration, François Bayrou announced that to obtain “an indisputable finding and figures”, he entrusted the Court of Auditors with a flash mission. Objective ? Know “the current and precise state of financing of the pension system”. Exit the COR, which had been its raison d’être for a quarter of a century.
The Prime Minister has the merit of consistency: when he headed the High Commission for Planning, he was one of the first, in December 2022, to question the accounting conventions used by this circle which resulted, according to him, to massively underestimate the regime’s deficit. Pierre-Louis Bras, who chaired the COR at the time, had left his feathers there, and his place. His successor recognizes – finally! – that there is room for discussion: “Of the 382 billion euros which in 2023 make up the resources of the retirement system excluding financial products, only 257 billion euros are financed by contributions from private sector players and the salary contributions of public agents, writes Gilbert This. The rest comes from transfers from the State or other public contributors (Cnaf, Unedic). Compensation of more than 120 billion… when François Bayrou only mentioned 55 billion in the National Assembly, excluding allocated taxes.
Changing of the Guard
Has the president of the COR become more royalist than the king? These sums are paid into the pot “by decisions of the government and the legislator”, he is careful to point out. Before returning everyone to their responsibilities: “For the sake of clarity and readability, the COR adopts the accounting conventions and standards retained within the framework of the finance and social security financing laws. But if parliamentarians wish, they can decide to revise the way in which the retirement accounts are presented. It will then be up to the COR to adopt this other presentation.” Too late, François Bayrou sounded the changing of the guard. Wise decision.
The Court of Auditors has therefore put itself in working order. For this commando operation, it should logically bring together several experts from the 1st chamber (public finances) and the 6th (social finances), who will have three weeks to run their models, formulate their recommendations and more, instill this pedagogy which is lacking for so many years in the debate on pensions. All in a reduced format, comparable to a chapter of the annual report, while the last opus of the COR was 230 pages… The context is eminently explosive. On the political level, first, because the institution of rue Cambon cannot risk the slightest trial of bias here. Economic, then: since Elisabeth Borne’s previous reform, in 2023, many indicators – youth unemployment, birth rate, public deficit, etc. – have deteriorated further. How can we improve this text, the Prime Minister’s promise to everyone, if the grist for the mill has already vanished?
One curve per graph, no smokey variants
Two years ago, the COR got its feet wet: anxious to reflect the diversity of its members – from the CGT to Medef, including the FSU and the CFE-CGC – it had multiplied the scenarios, by 2070, making any diagnosis illegible. Under the leadership of Gilbert Cela, his work has modestly gained clarity: last June’s report immediately presented a reference trajectory, relegating the other hypotheses to the soft underbelly of the document. In all likelihood, the Court of Auditors should drive home the point: only one curve per graph, and no confusing variants. Certain parameters that no one believes in anymore – such as an unemployment rate of 5% – will not hold up. So much the better: choice kills action.
“Everyone is playing big in this story of a flash mission, summarizes a specialist in budgetary issues. Bayrou, who will not be able to free himself from the conclusions. The Court, summoned to say strong things quickly, without taking a position. And the social partners: Matignon agreed to bring them together in conclave, at their request, to discuss pensions, but their proposals must fall within the financial framework strictly established by the magistrates.” A serious game that France, if it wants to get out of the current slump, cannot afford to lose.
.