The end of the NFP? Why LFI and the PS could break up

The end of the NFP Why LFI and the PS

Relations between LFI and the PS have never been so conflictual. The recent statement by Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the socialists’ non-vote of censure against François Bayrou may have signaled the beginning of the end of the NFP.

The break seems well and truly complete between La France insoumise (LFI) and the Socialist Party (PS). Latest episode to date, the choice of roses not to vote on the motion of censure against the tenant of Matignon and his government. According to information from TF1/LCI53 members of the PS national office voted against censorship, 10 for censorship and 2 voted to abstain. An affront for LFI – a member of the New Popular Front, just like the socialists – who does not understand this decision and who, worse, vehemently opposes it.

The frontal threat of Jean-Luc Mélenchon

If the rag has been burning between the two for a long time, these last days seem to mark a real turning point in the relations between the two left-wing political parties. The historic boss of LFI, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has nothing to do with it.“The concessions granted to the socialists are so grotesque that I leave them the pleasure of explaining them,” he quipped, facing several journalists, including those from the World and of Parisianbefore inviting the partners of the New Popular Front to vote in favor of the motion of censure tabled by the rebels at the end of the day, in a somewhat threatening tone: “All those who do not vote for censure are leaving the New Popular Front , and we put an option on their constituencies.” And the founder of La France insoumise accuses the socialists of having brought the New Popular Front “to the ground” with these negotiations.

“The challenge is that it is indeed LFI which is isolated within the NFP”

It is clear that the socialists did not follow Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s “advice” to the letter. So, is the NFP down? Maybe. He is most certainly weakened. “The challenge is that it is indeed LFI which is isolated within the NFP at the end of the sequence, and not the PS”, confided a socialist deputy in the columns of Marianne. A state of mind which sums up the situation quite well, and the decay of relations between the two parties.

For the vice-president of the National Assembly and rebellious deputy Clémence Guetté, by not voting for censure, the PS “enters a new coalition of support for the macronie and de facto excludes itself from the New Popular Front. To the French who believe in the immense hope raised last June: we will not betray you. The fight continues,” she declared on the social network. Xaccompanied by a black and white photo of Olivier Faure and François Hollande.

With these words, the rebellious elected official almost literally excludes the Socialist Party of the New Popular Front, this left-wing coalition formed on June 10, 2024 with a view to the legislative elections of the same year, in opposition to the parties of the presidential majority as well as to the National gathering. “By threatening to nominate candidates against the rest of the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is dancing a little closer to the cliff. All this is very rational, but in no way prevents the explosion,” analyzesThomas Schelling at Marianne, American economist specializing in strategic issues and author of The Conflict Strategy. How can I prove him wrong?

Environmentalists and communists: the arbiters of a divorce decided in advance?

So, is there any hope of seeing LFI and the PS side by side again?Environmentalists and communists could serve as a link between the two. As a reminder, these two political parties have declared – for the majority of their deputies – that they want to vote for the motion of censure against the Bayrou government. They are therefore positioned rather on the same line as LFI. “If there was a motion of censure, there in a few hours, we would vote for it by majority,” reacted the communist Fabien Roussel on BFMTV, asking for clarification from the Prime Minister, in particular on pension reform. Same story with Marine Tondelier, boss of the Greens. Positions which could prove to be far too meager given the scale of the task to reconcile LFI and the PS.

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