It seemed like a crazy gamble until February 2022. Providing satellite Internet access with speeds close to those on land and low latency. All thanks to long constellations of devices in low orbit, visible to the naked eye from Earth… For whom, for what uses? Ukraine’s invasion of Russia and the very rapid deployment of technology there made Starlink’s promise couldn’t be more concrete. Since then, the company, owned by SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, has been weaving its web at high speed.
Within the general public, on the one hand. Starlink claims 4.6 million users across the globe, primarily in areas where connectivity is poor or absent altogether. Not really in France, therefore, very well covered in fiber and 5G. But this is not the case everywhere. Around 2.6 billion people around the world do not have reliable access to the Internet, according to the International Telecommunications Union (ITU). Starlink, for example, is enjoying great success in Africa, such as in Zimbabwe, where the service is already at saturation, reports the media Rest of The World. On this continent, the prices for these satellite subscriptions are sometimes even cheaper than with traditional terrestrial providers. In a study published in 2024, the bank Morgan Stanley anticipates 32 million subscribers for Starlink by 2040, or even 80 million in an even more optimistic scenario.
Enough to satisfy Elon Musk who affirmed, in spring 2024, that this SpaceX subsidiary is already profitable. “According to our estimates, this is indeed the case, since the very end of 2023,” confirms to L’Express Maxime Puteaux, consultant at NovaSpace, a company specializing in the analysis of the space market. If the exact figures remain confidential, Starlink actively contributes to the profitability of its parent company SpaceX, whose turnover in 2023 amounted to 8 billion dollars, specifies the expert.
Starlink is above all capitalizing on its lead over the competition. The company flies over around a hundred countries using a fleet of nearly 7,000 satellites. Neither OneWeb, which has so far launched around 600 satellites, nor Kuiper from e-commerce giant Amazon, which is still in the making, can compete in terms of coverage and accessibility. No more than other recently announced European or Chinese constellations, and not yet in the sky. As a reminder, older generation satellite Internet – with devices located at an altitude of nearly 36,000 kilometers compared to 550 for Starlink – is no longer competitive in terms of speed or throughput.
Military contracts
So, Starlink is reaping. In addition to the general public, governments are increasingly succumbing to it in response to or in anticipation of civil emergencies. French Prime Minister François Bayrou immediately urgently called for the deployment of 200 Starlink antennas after the devastating cyclone Chido passed through Mayotte in mid-December. In Japan, the municipalities of Ishikawa prefecture, plagued by violent earthquakes, have also contracted with the company over a longer term horizon. Italy is following the same path. Behind on its 5G and fiber connectivity objectives, the Boot is considering an emergency solution via Starlink in the most inaccessible areas or exposed to natural disasters. A “pragmatic” choice for States explains an expert in the sector: “When population density decreases, the marginal cost of connecting a new home to fiber increases exponentially.” Satellite is a quick to install and relatively inexpensive solution.
Still within governments, in the wake of its intervention in Ukraine, military contracts are also on the rise. The analysis company Quilty Space estimates that the company could boost its turnover in 2025 specifically thanks to the growth of this business. Firstly, thanks to its partnership with the United States, which operates a Starlink network specially dedicated to military issues, called Starshield. According to BloombergUkraine has also benefited from this support since last summer, after an agreement with the Pentagon.
But unexpected customers could emerge. Italy, again, would consider using Starlink for its encrypted communications. This proposed $1.6 billion cybersecurity contract, unveiled a few days ago by Bloombergwas strongly criticized by the opposition to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. It also arouses the reluctance of observers. “The manager of the constellation necessarily has access to the data. It is a loss of sovereignty for Italy and potentially for its allies, such as France, in the case of exchanges between the two nations”, judges Philippe Steininger, advisor military of the president of the National Center for Space Studies (CNES). The expert evokes tense relations between Rome and its European partners in the space domain, particularly regarding the European satellite constellation Iris², which has just been made official. Musk, right-hand man of the new American president Donald Trump whom he energetically supported, also maintains good relations with Giorgia Meloni. The two therefore have everything to get along. In the short term, at least. The possible contract would cover five years, leaving open an eventual fallback to Iris², when it is expected to come into service around 2030.
Wi-Fi on the plane?
If all goes well. Because Starlink’s lead could, in this period of time, quickly widen. The space gem plans to eventually orbit several tens of thousands of satellites and improve its coverage. It has a major asset in this mission: SpaceX’s Starship launcher, the best in its category. The company is currently the only one able to send so many devices into orbit on a regular basis, and what’s more, in increasingly large volumes. “The first generations weighed around 300 kilos, those currently launched are around 800 kilos and, soon, the third generation will be 1.2 tonnes,” notes Maxime Puteaux, from Nova Space. Enough to absorb ever more traffic and improve the performance of constellations to launch new services. Last year, Starlink successfully tested a new “direct-to-cell” technology, which allows any 4G or 5G mobile to be connected to its satellites. The offer could be distributed by the end of 2025 to international operators and shake up the global mobile telephony market.
In the event of failure, other markets seem ripe for low-orbit satellite Internet, such as consumer and professional transport, whose connectivity is notoriously poor. Starlink has already convinced several big names. For example, Air France, which will offer a free “ground-like” Wi-Fi experience on its flights for its FlyBlue members from mid-2025. Still via a partnership with the firm created by Elon Musk, Icomera, a leader in transport connectivity solutions (SNCF, etc.), claims to be able to deliver uninterrupted connections on trains to its customers from the first quarter of 2025 , with a speed approaching that of a “5G city center” network. In addition to AirFrance and Icomera, the companies Qatar Airways, United, the public railway company ScotRail, or the giant Royal Caribbean in the cruise sector, are also buyers. Just like Maersk in sea freight. And tomorrow, vehicles, including Elon Musk’s Tesla?
A $56 billion market
Starlink skillfully exploits its lead, but has no choice but to hurry. First, under a license granted by the United States: the firm has the obligation to reach the threshold of 12,000 satellites launched by 2027. It must make them profitable. It also needs to replace its first devices, which have a lifespan of five years. This should lead to a significant increase in costs. The first slowdowns could also be felt. Starlink is struggling to convince the huge Indian market to open up to it and has, unsurprisingly, found its doors closed in China and Russia. African countries like Cameroon remain reluctant to accept Starlink. Musk’s personality can finally put off leaders like in Europe where he sows discord.
Then, competition will eventually arrive. The Blue Origin company of Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, is about to launch its New Glenn rocket, to allow Kuiper to put its first satellites into orbit. A host of other smaller challengers are also in the running. Charles Delfieux, director of the French start-up Constellation technology operation, created in 2022, intends to compete with Starlink by sending satellites even lower than the American, 375 kilometers above our heads. And intends to join forces with mobile operators to use their 5G telecommunications frequencies. A positioning which will allow it to obtain lower latencies and therefore faster transmission. But also to reduce certain costs, particularly in the design of user terminals. The service, upon arrival, could be cheap. Starlink is not always. Its antennas currently cost several hundred dollars. However, pushing Musk on his playing field will not be easy. But Charles Delfieux estimates the big cake for high-speed connectivity from space to be “$56 billion” by 2035. An excellent reason not to give the richest man in the world sole access. to Earth’s orbit.
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