Laurent Wauquiez has a light spirit. On Tuesday January 14, the head of La Droite Republicane (DR) went to the traditional “common base” breakfast around François Bayrou. The deputy for Haute-Loire already knows that the Prime Minister will not announce any “suspension” of the pension reform in his general policy declaration (DPG) a few hours later. It was released the day before by the Minister responsible for Relations with Parliament Patrick Mignola. In Matignon, he lets the Béarnais unveil his project for a meeting of social partners in order to improve the copy of Élisabeth Borne. Then, welcomes an “inflection” from the government. “There is no inflection,” retorts François Bayrou. Hadn’t the head of government theorized his mantra “resume without suspending” as early as December 19?
The war of stories is declared. The right has a scenario to sell to the French. Through her warnings in the press, she would have forced François Bayrou to moderate his concessions to the left. “Neither suspension nor repeal”, warned the President of the Senate Gérard Larcher on Sunday in The Parisian. Followed by Laurent Wauquiez the next day in the same newspaper. Here is the self-proclaimed right-wing watchdog of public accounts. In a group meeting, the former mayor of Puy-en-Velay salutes Tuesday the role of LR in the arbitration of François Bayrou. “I didn’t want a suspension,” he said on CNews on January 15. “We put a lot of pressure over the last few days to ensure that this did not happen. I was worried because I could clearly see the temptation to buy the voice of a few dozen socialist deputies to take the budget hostage.”
The annoyance of the Bayrou camp
Public finances can say thank you to the right. Around François Bayrou, we see a rewriting of history. The right would invent a phantom threat to better appear as a savior. “Laurent is good at autofiction,” smiles an LR deputy. As of Saturday, the Minister of the Economy Eric Lombard and his Budget counterpart Amélie de Montchalin ruled out any abrupt suspension of the pension reform during a video with the EPR deputies of the Finance Commission, without agreement from the social partners. An EPR deputy thus laughs at LR’s takeover of a “virginity after its procrastination” during the examination of the reform in 2023. “The pressure from the right played a role”, tempers another.
The episode illustrates the relationship between the right and François Bayrou. The first victory claimed by LR is a supposed capitulation, not a measure. Laurent Wauquiez certainly demands “acts” from the new government, but only retains two “achievements” from François Bayrou’s DPG: “We cannot stop the pension reform […] There will be no new tax increases.” The right is not waiting for the big evening. If the Prime Minister abstains from stinging projects, that will already be that. September seems far away. During the LR parliamentary days in Annecy, Laurent Wauquiez made this demand to his troops, after the appointment of Michel Barnier “Will his program be right-wing?”
Lowering ambitions
Censorship has been there. A centrist, loyal to the head of state and little known for his reforming audacity, entered Matignon. His vague DPG convinced the right that no reform agenda awaited him. So much the worse for its reformist DNA. So much the better for strategic puzzles, which she will protect herself from. Ambitions have been scaled back. “LR has only two things to hope for,” notes a former LR minister. “That Bruno Retailleau can continue to plow his furrow. And that the right is considered responsible and among those who do not mess up the country.” “The French will be grateful for institutional stability. This is the first expectation of the inhabitants of our constituencies”, adds the deputy for Loire Antoine Vermorel-Marques.
Here are LR’s two breasts. A popular Minister of the Interior, reinforced in his action by François Bayrou when he took office. The Vendéen privately notes his ability to “deploy” after the DPG of Béarnais, which is rather firm on immigration. The good performance of the right during the partial legislative elections – it collected nearly 16.77% in Isère on Sunday January 12 – reinforces its executives in their conviction that it is useful to remain in charge.
The right is finally establishing its image as a responsible party. “The priority is to provide a minimum of stability,” claims Laurent Wauquiez. This “demanding” support for François Bayrou is as chosen as it is suffered. It allows the right to distinguish itself from the RN, portrayed as an agent of chaos since the fall of Michel Barnier. But the Brexit negotiator’s short adventure tied his hands for the future. “Difficult after pleading responsibility for appearing to be struggling,” said an LR executive before the appointment of François Bayrou. The right did not “give up”. With modest hopes for the gains to be made from the Bayrou experience.