Risks linked to armed conflicts and economic tensions are at the top of the immediate concerns of the business world, according to a report from the World Economic Forum (WEF) published this Wednesday, January 15, a few days before its annual meeting in Davos.
“We are unfortunately experiencing a record number of conflicts in the world,” Mirek Dusek, a WEF official, said at a press conference, citing Ukraine and the Middle East, but also “humanitarian emergencies” in Sudan. , in Somalia or Gaza. Nearly a quarter of respondents to the survey conducted by the WEF among 11,000 business leaders in 121 countries placed this risk at the top of the list of dangers over a two-year horizon, while it only pointed to fifth place in 2024.
“A very complicated geoeconomic environment”
For Mirek Dusek, it is “linked to the general feeling of a very complicated geoeconomic environment”, with fears of “geoeconomic confrontations” appearing in third place among the risks cited for this year. “The rise of protectionism and the increase in trade disputes are leading to a significant increase in customs duties and barriers to global trade”, especially as many countries try to secure their resources in critical raw materials for their technological innovations or their energy transition, underlined Carolina Klint of the specialist risk management firm Marsh McLennan. And these new trade barriers “will further disrupt supply chains, which will increase costs and delays”, and potentially contribute to reviving inflation, she warned.
The number of “new harmful policy interventions” increased from 600 in 2017 to more than 3,000 per year in 2022, the WEF estimated on Wednesday, citing figures from the Global Trade Alert organization which assesses trade policies around the world.
And American President-elect Donald Trump, who is due to speak by videoconference in Davos on January 23, has notably threatened to impose heavy customs duties on products arriving on American soil.
Extreme climatic events are also widely cited by respondents, in second place among immediate risks and even first over a ten-year horizon, at a time when historic fires are devastating part of Los Angeles against a backdrop of worsening of climate change. As in 2024, disinformation is also one of the major risks cited by participants, in fourth place among immediate risks and at the top of concerns over a two-year horizon.