While France is plunged into an unprecedented political crisis, the AI already seems to have its own idea about the next head of state…
While Emmanuel Macron’s legitimacy in power is increasingly contested, many people are already thinking about who will succeed him as President of the Republic. The future candidates for the 2027 elections are becoming clearer, some are even already unavoidable, but the outcome still remains very uncertain. Only artificial intelligence, which has the capacity to ingest and summarize numerous surveys (Ifop, Challenges, Opinion Way, etc.) and their dynamics, seems to already be a step ahead of the results.
We asked several AIs what their predictions were for the next French presidential election, which will be held in 2027. The best artificial intelligences revealed their predictions to us, and they will certainly be talked about…
“If we talk about the upcoming French presidential elections, without the candidacy of Macron (who cannot run for a third term), several factors will come into play to determine who could win,” ChatGPT specifies from the outset.
The first name mentioned by the best-known AI to replace Emmanuel Macron nevertheless risks dividing, since it is neither more nor less than Marine Le Pen, president of the National Rally in the National Assembly: “Marine Le Pen has consolidated her position after reaching the second round in 2022, where she collected nearly 42% of the votes,” specifies ChatGPT. “His party continues to attract a solid electoral base, particularly on the right and among the working classes.”
Perplexity adds: “Marine Le Pen would obtain between 34% and 40% of voting intentions in the first round, which places her well ahead of the other candidates. In the second round scenarios, she would win against several candidates: against Gabriel Attal, she would obtain 51% to 53% of the votes, against Jean-Luc Mélenchon, she would obtain 64% of the votes, against Édouard Philippe, the result would be closer, with 50% to 51% of the votes.”
ChatGPT and Perplexity therefore unanimously believe that the far-right party will take power in the next elections, winning the votes of the centrist party or the New Popular Front. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, or his successor, “could find an even stronger resonance with the electorate if France faces major social or economic crises”, according to ChatGPT, even if “the left is currently fragmented, which could harm his chances.”
As for the presidential majority, Perplexity estimates that “Edouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal would respectively obtain between 20% and 31% of the votes in the first round, but would have difficulty beating Marine Le Pen in the second round.” To win the elections, the IA believes that Gabriel Attal should take the head of the Renaissance group, within which he is today secretary general, and distance himself from Emmanuel Macron, who is unpopular with the French.
But what can AI use to provide such answers? When we question it, the latter unsurprisingly refers to various surveys published in the press or carried out by institutes. The AI then just mixes them together to get our answers. The result of the next elections, even if there is no doubt among artificial intelligences, must be considered with a pinch of salt. Answer in less than three years, in 2027, when we will finally know who will succeed Emmanuel Macron.