Donald Trump’s fascination with strong regimes is known. We also know, since the attempted insurrection in the Senate on January 6, 2020, his attachment to the tenuous democratic process. We still know that American interests take precedence over all others in the way in which Washington views its relations with the rest of the world. For these reasons, in particular, Putin is not, in his eyes, the terrible “bag guy” that Europe denounces. The Russian dictator does not directly threaten American hegemony over the world since he leaves this role to his ally Xi Jinping. We even find in Trump a fascination for this former KGB agent with the strong manners that he likes.
In these times when the democratic model is more than ever contested from the inside (the weight of extremes and populism) as well as from the outside (migratory flow and the expansion of dictatorships on a planetary scale), the Russian system as it functions , led with an iron fist by Vladimir Putin, appears enviably stable. Exemplarity cannot, however, be openly recognized by the new tenant of the White House while his manners, as they appear, appear very “Putinian”.
Tech giants, new oligarchs?
When he entered the Kremlin in 2000, Vladimir Putin did not have the same absolute powers as today. He cut them to his measure, first of all by imposing his order on his only real competitors: the oligarchs who had shared the country’s immense mining and oil wealth under Yeltsin’s presidency. Nowadays, no Russian billionaire dares openly challenge the master of the Kremlin, and he is undoubtedly the richest among them. Billionaire Trump has no such ambition; however, he knows that the tech giants are, because of the powers of influence they hold, potential competitors of his political power. Even before taking office, he ensured their allegiance, as Putin did with the oligarchs, so that they understood that it would not be in their interest to stand against him.
The bosses of Gafam, who depend on the political authority both for the guarantee of circulation on the Internet and for access to public markets, quickly fell into line. Even the most critical of them, regarding Trump’s escapades during the electoral campaign, have pledged allegiance to him. Better still, they gave in to an obsession on the part of the new president, convinced of the intended hostility of social networks towards him, by promising him less critical exchanges on the Internet. The comparison with Putin’s control over the oligarchs is all the more relevant since real power these days no longer lies with those who hold the raw materials but with those who control the digital data.
Certainly, Donald Trump does not have the same guarantees of political longevity as Vladimir Putin, who only has to fear the Brutus in his entourage who would like to take his place. A party under orders (United Russia), a phantom opposition, a non-existent legislative power, a masquerade of justice, an effective political police, even in his dreams Trump cannot hope for the same. However, he is not without control levers: his party, the Republicans, has a majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives, the Supreme Court is dominated by judges who owe their position to him, the FBI which he counts hold in hand can serve him to take revenge on those he blames for his fall in 2020, his government is made up of ministers whose allegiance takes precedence over skills. This gives him certain personal power.
“Meadow square”
Even in foreign policy similarities exist between the two leaders. Putin justified the invasion of Ukraine in the name of this country’s belonging to the same Slavic world. The Russian dictator dreams of reconstituting the Soviet glacis of yesteryear, at least in part, so that his country can regain its past glory. Trump’s claims on Greenland and the Panama Canal, his claims to want to merge the United States with Canada, in the name of the economic interests of the United States, suggest a desire to expand the American zone of influence over his near stranger which recalls that which Putin applies on what he considers to be his backyard. Fantasy or provocation, Trump’s remarks in any case denote a conception of the balance of power similar to that of the Russian dictator. Ukraine will quickly experience the harm with a peace imposed jointly by Washington and Moscow.
In the name of “Make Amerika Great Again”, the economic interests of the United States appear to be limitless. When Putin considers Europe his field of action, Trump thinks of the world. As for the spoilsport role that Elon Musk plays by interfering in European politics and providing support to far-right forces, the method is also reminiscent of the policy of influence that his side pursues. Moscow on the Old Continent, with the aim of destabilizing democracies by relying on precisely the same political forces. If the objectives differ, their consequences could also prove fatal for the fragile European construction.
It is reassuring to think that Trump will never have as much power as Putin. One presides over a democracy with its rules of law, at least as long as they are respected, the other is the heir of a totalitarian regime of which he has retained most of the coercive means. However, Trump is at the head of an unrivaled power to impose his views on the rest of the world when Putin, struggling in Ukraine, does not have the necessary forces to achieve his ambitions. It is certain that the decisions that the American president takes will weigh more on our future than the desire for power of the former USSR, especially if he loses interest in the fate of the Old Continent. And Europe, then, finds itself caught in a vice by these two leaders who are motivated solely by their interests.
* Journalist and specialist in communism, Thierry Wolton published Le Retour des temps barbares (Grasset) in 2024.
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